2009 Crash to 2025’s Liberation Day Crash: A Trend Line Analysis

Over the weekend I was looking at the Dow Jones industrial average from the crash of 2008 until today and couldn't help but notice a trend and I wanted to see if anyone else sees this as well.

The analysis is based on the following DJIA closing values at the peak of their respective market drops:

• 2008 Crash: On September 29, 2008, the DJIA closed at 10,365.45.
• 2025 Crash: On April 4, 2025, the DJIA closed at 38,314.86.

Using these two data points, a linear trend line was calculated to model the average growth of the DJIA over this period. The equation for the trend line is:

y=1692.64x−3389714.82

Where:

• y represents the DJIA value.
• x represents the year.

The slope (m) of the line is 1692.64, which indicates that the average annual growth of the DJIA between the 2008 and 2025 crashes was approximately 1,692.64 points.

By anchoring the points in two historical downturns, the trend line captures the long-term trajectory of recovery and growth and hopefully filters out market "noise" and highlights a macro level trend.

Link to figures 1-3 of trend line analysis for 2008-current

Fig. 1: Looking at a chart from The DJIA from 2008 until current. Note how the market tends to follow the red trend line 2009-2015, again 2017-2019, again 2022-2024, with some wild fluctuations that I will examine in the next figure.

Fig 2: Climbing out of the sub-prime mortgage crisis from 2009 to 2015 there was steady growth along the trend line. Note how the market was pretty much tied to trend line for 8 years with the exception of where the global stock market declined significantly between June 2015 and June 2016 due to a combination of factors, including China's economic slowdown, falling oil prices, the Greek debt crisis, fears of a stronger dollar impacting emerging markets, and concerns about the potential consequences of the UK's Brexit vote. These elements created widespread investor fear, leading to market selloffs and volatility in global equity markets. In 2017 things start returning to the trend line until, of course, the pandemic hits in early 2020.

Fig 3: Taking into consideration the outlier event of 2020, as an understandable deviation from the trend line, the market hits a booming recovery and stabilizes in 2022 until 2024. In 2024, we see the market's deviation above the trend line driven by a combination of resilient economic performance, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy shift, and a massive surge in investor enthusiasm for AI.

The last touch of the trend line prior to Liberation Day in 2025 was Nov 15, 2023 when the market closed at ~34,991. The market closed on Friday 8/29/2025 at ~45,636, a difference of 10,645 in 1 year and 9 months. From the touch point in Nov 2023 to today the average is 506.91. By contrast, the monthly growth average of the trend dates from 2008-25 is 140.05 points.

Not sure what any of this means but if this trend line analysis is correct, we could be heading into a major correction soon. Morningstar describes the current environment as being in the "eye of a hurricane," with potential for volatility ahead. A slowdown in GDP growth, rising inflation, and declining consumer confidence are all classic warning signs. Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway, has been selling stocks and building up cash reserves, which can be an indicator of caution. The Nifty index in India has fallen below its 100 EMA (Exponential Moving Average), confirming a deeper bearish trend, and a "sell on rise" strategy is being recommended. Corporate leaders are expressing apprehension about the economic outlook, and a recent CNBC survey showed that a majority of top executives anticipate a recession.