3/2/1 buy down or point buy down?

I have about $20,000 in seller credits for a buy down. The break even point is 6 years if I were to do a point buy down. Or I can do a 3/2/1 with the hopes of refinancing soon, though I’m not that confident in the interest rates coming down significantly enough during that time with bond market and the dollar being where they’re at now.

Looking for outside opinions.

Loan amount is about $400k

I can definitely make the payments from year 4 and onward at my current interest rate, but it’s a matter of which gamble do I want to take. Do I think I’ll be able to refi within 6 years? Or will it be more worthwhile to have a permanent buydown?

A refinance within the first 3 years would mean I still get to keep that credit and put it toward principal. Basically I get the $20k worth of my buy down, not a penny less and not a penny more.

Point buy down after the first 6 years is just free money more or less.