There are 170 million people in the labor force. Assuming bad math, which means that this error occurred all at once (rather than readjustments each month), this means an error rate of 0.5%. You realize how fantastic that is with survey data?
If you assume a uniform distribution, this means that each month error numbers were revisions of ~75,000, which would put the error rate at 0.04%.
The BLS is truly the gold standard.
CrystalCrusader407 on
> The pace of job growth was likely significantly weaker than reported from early 2024 through early this year, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics said Tuesday.
> The U.S. added 911,000 fewer jobs over the 12 months that ended in March, the BLS said. If that holds, it would bring the average pace of employment gains from 147,00 jobs a month over the period to about 71,000.
> Tuesday’s report is just the preliminary part of an annual process in which the BLS updates the job figures from its monthly employer survey using more comprehensive data from state unemployment tax records. The official revision will come in February, and economists suspect it might not be quite as negative.
> But the report, even though it is for a period that ended nearly a half year ago, could amplify worries that the job market, which has shown signs of significant weakening since March, started from a lower baseline than previously known. And it comes at a time when the BLS has come under fire from President Trump over the accuracy of its data.
mundotaku on
Obviously they corrected on the months of the biden administration… absolutely nothing to do with firing the person who made Trump mad by reporting numbers he didn’t like.
tryexceptifnot1try on
This is so much worse than we realized. The terrible executive branch policy we are dealing with was easier to stomach when we had a much higher baseline to begin with. This means our baseline was much worse and the inflation numbers are a significantly bigger problem than we realized since the labor market was so weak. Even if the SCOTUS upholds the lower court ruling on tariffs the major damage is happening for the next 2 quarters regardless of anything due to inertia. There will also be permanent long term damage that will just lower our growth permanently as a result of all the uncertainty, deal breaking, and corruption of the GOP. The US is about to be one of the worst **relative** economic performers in the world for the first time in a long time. Trump and the GOP have handed this century to the Chinese on a silver platter.
miltonrockne on
So it’s still Biden’s economy…but this time, unlike when Trump inherited Obama’s economy and poured gas on it to make it go “boom” he poured gas on this one to burn it down!
fuzzballz5 on
This is common if you have been unemployed anytime from Q2 of 2022 when the white collar recession until now. There was no press about fake job postings. The economy was ready to take off with Trump just out of cyclical issues. Instead, he caused his own self inflicted issues by the tariffs. What I am very concerned about is the “surprise” that happens to every president. He weakened us now. What if a COVID happens? What if an attack occurs. People are struggling with inflation that at this point, is normalized. It’s not good.
Mr_1990s on
It would be so much better if it wasn’t so politically charged.
It’s the second year in a row that there was a big revision. That is bad. But, it’s good that have a group willing to make revisions.
I doubt this is a result of something nefarious, though I get the concerns. Especially about the next time they have to do this, because I imagine they’ll want to revise the last several months down.
From a political perspective, this still means that 15+ million jobs were added between 2021-2024 compared to the 2 million that were lost between 2017-2020.
ThePortalsOfFrenzy on
/r/titlegore fr.
You changed 911,000 to 900,000, only to need to include “over” for accuracy, while introducing confusion with the competing terms “fewer” and “over”.
8 Comments
There are 170 million people in the labor force. Assuming bad math, which means that this error occurred all at once (rather than readjustments each month), this means an error rate of 0.5%. You realize how fantastic that is with survey data?
If you assume a uniform distribution, this means that each month error numbers were revisions of ~75,000, which would put the error rate at 0.04%.
The BLS is truly the gold standard.
> The pace of job growth was likely significantly weaker than reported from early 2024 through early this year, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics said Tuesday.
> The U.S. added 911,000 fewer jobs over the 12 months that ended in March, the BLS said. If that holds, it would bring the average pace of employment gains from 147,00 jobs a month over the period to about 71,000.
> Tuesday’s report is just the preliminary part of an annual process in which the BLS updates the job figures from its monthly employer survey using more comprehensive data from state unemployment tax records. The official revision will come in February, and economists suspect it might not be quite as negative.
> But the report, even though it is for a period that ended nearly a half year ago, could amplify worries that the job market, which has shown signs of significant weakening since March, started from a lower baseline than previously known. And it comes at a time when the BLS has come under fire from President Trump over the accuracy of its data.
Obviously they corrected on the months of the biden administration… absolutely nothing to do with firing the person who made Trump mad by reporting numbers he didn’t like.
This is so much worse than we realized. The terrible executive branch policy we are dealing with was easier to stomach when we had a much higher baseline to begin with. This means our baseline was much worse and the inflation numbers are a significantly bigger problem than we realized since the labor market was so weak. Even if the SCOTUS upholds the lower court ruling on tariffs the major damage is happening for the next 2 quarters regardless of anything due to inertia. There will also be permanent long term damage that will just lower our growth permanently as a result of all the uncertainty, deal breaking, and corruption of the GOP. The US is about to be one of the worst **relative** economic performers in the world for the first time in a long time. Trump and the GOP have handed this century to the Chinese on a silver platter.
So it’s still Biden’s economy…but this time, unlike when Trump inherited Obama’s economy and poured gas on it to make it go “boom” he poured gas on this one to burn it down!
This is common if you have been unemployed anytime from Q2 of 2022 when the white collar recession until now. There was no press about fake job postings. The economy was ready to take off with Trump just out of cyclical issues. Instead, he caused his own self inflicted issues by the tariffs. What I am very concerned about is the “surprise” that happens to every president. He weakened us now. What if a COVID happens? What if an attack occurs. People are struggling with inflation that at this point, is normalized. It’s not good.
It would be so much better if it wasn’t so politically charged.
It’s the second year in a row that there was a big revision. That is bad. But, it’s good that have a group willing to make revisions.
I doubt this is a result of something nefarious, though I get the concerns. Especially about the next time they have to do this, because I imagine they’ll want to revise the last several months down.
From a political perspective, this still means that 15+ million jobs were added between 2021-2024 compared to the 2 million that were lost between 2017-2020.
/r/titlegore fr.
You changed 911,000 to 900,000, only to need to include “over” for accuracy, while introducing confusion with the competing terms “fewer” and “over”.
What the hell was that all about??