$OPEN is up almost 1,000% in the last 3 months, based on its memecoin status and the return of co-founder to the board (Keith Rabois).
I'm not SUPER familiar with the company but the infamous Martin Shkrelli pointed out:
- They only have an 8% gross margin
- Their recent "positive" cash flow was from selling off real estate inventory (potentially to liquidate its assets to stay afloat rather than from its core operations?)
- Never been consistently profitable –> sign of bad biz model?
When does the meme end?
Market pricing in a 10% chance after their next earnings:
Almost a 500% gain to be had if that plays out
Kelly criterion saying if I believe there's a 20% chance this happen makes sense to place a bet:
Thoughts??
Posted by clavidk
23 Comments
Please short it 🙏
Isn’t $2.5 a bit too low? Especially if there’s rate cuts the hype will continue, and I think the hype alone will keep it above $2.5.
[deleted]
OPEN 🚀🚀🚀🚀
Its dramatically going up or down each day. Theres money to be made if youre not married to the stock. Sure a lot if people seem to be diamond handing this, but youre also feeding the people waiting to sell every time it goes higher
This is like playing chicken with a freight train.
The people buying this don’t care much about fundamentals and those buying it who do care about fundamentals are banking on the fundamentals radically changing due to the expose its gained.
A meme stock rally is free advertising plus provides some breathing room for the company to radically change its business model/management.
I’m not saying that any of these scenarios will happen, but its the potential that people are banking on, and the probability is much higher now than it was 6 months ago.
Shkreli and people with his approach towards analysis are great at determining value based on a balance sheet, but thats not what’s driving this.
And this doesnt even start to talk about some of the more mechanical drivers of price like short or gamma squeezes that could completely blow you out if your timing isn’t near perfect.
Regarding 2. Isn’t selling homes their normal operations? That’s their whole business model from what I’ve read about. Or at least a core piece of it. This means they sold homes for more than they bought.
I think there are better stocks to short. RIOT at these levels for instance.
Your statement is illogical.
The future is not as easy to predict as you may think. You just exposed your bias bc you frame it as if this is the case. It never is
I bought open at 65 cents. Should I never invest again bc im long? What a load of BS.
First of all, open may cool off from here, but no one knows the magnitude or rate at which it will move.
Use technical patterns at your own risk.
I know a stock that has horrible fundamentals, a deranged CEO, and a collapse in consumer interest.
Ticker is TSLA, look it up. And then look at how badly shorts have been burned over and over again.
The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
You’re right, OPEN doesn’t make sense, but so what? It has an entire economy around it propping it up, and getting in the way of that is just asking to be squeezed.
I have no doubt the OPEN bubble pops at some point, but I’d be very careful trying to get the timing on that right.
Meme stock. What did you expect?
I am more curious whats the app or brokerage or software you use for those stats. Look cool
Everbody has known it is a dogshit company this whole time. That means nothing. It will probably crash at some point but timing that is a complete gamble. Also remember puts are like 170-200 IV lately. High chance of getting IV crushed if you intend to take a longer expiry option on the assumption that it will crash eventually.
only 24% of the float is short and it is only 5%, plenty if shares to short if you want but id rather see a more parabolic move
You’re right, but when are you going to be right? You’ll see a correction but you won’t know when.
He’s 100% right. Open is a joke of a business. It will never work…
I have puts for $5 in Jan. I am not sure if I will make any money on those. So to anyone who pretends to be this sure about a meme stock – good luck to you Sir! And good luck to me
Cool data, link?
Instead of shorting just sell CCS, the premiums are juicy.
One could be so right and so broke at the same time.
Correct me if I’m wrong, but in your options case you show that a -75% decrease in the stock within 66 days with that specific option will return 473% but let’s say 5:1 payout. If the chance of this happening is only 10%, shouldn’t that mean you would only take this bet if the option returned >1000%?
I might be missing something idk, I still agree OPEN is a short.
Wow thanks for confirming we going to $8
Said all the TESLA bears over the years. Seriously, volume barely dropped off OPEN and it is still above support, I’d call a kick in the arm for AI at least. Sounds like your DTE sucks.