Pause on Investing, or Push Through? (Future of the US)

I don’t believe the writing is on the wall, and anyone that tells you they know what will happen tomorrow, a week from now, 6 months from now, doesn’t know what they’re talking about. If you have a healthy, diverse allocation you just continue right on investing. This is why people diversify, so that they “spread the damage” so to speak if a downturn happens to occur.

Do it like me: instead of an all world fund, go for stratified funds like: TDIV, EQQQ, CHDVD, VERX, SPY5, EMNJ, EXCH, EGLN, VAPX (in that order by ratio). And there you can set your target ratios and adjust when something happens. However, this is speculation, still.

You should pick a ratio that makes sense, like maybe balancing off the US and onto European stuff and then be patient. I am still overweight on the US by some 40% or something.

TL-DR — don’t pause if you’re a long-term investor, because there’s always some prediction of doomsday.

short-term, the market can be more volatile, so it depends on your time horizon.

>I’ve been reading a bunch of stuff about the shifting power balance of the world

when you read info like this, you need to stop and evaluate a few things:

– am I having an emotional reaction?
– am I being manipulated?
– who is the person writing this article?
– what is their agenda? are they trying to sell something to me?
– do they have any training or experience that qualifies them as an expert on this topic, or is it just some goober speculating?
– what are their other predictions in the past?
– how accurate have their other predictions?
– are there other experts who have different evaluations of the matter?
– what are the “pro” and “con” positions for this topic?

slow down. think about it rationally. try to avoid automatic, emotional reflex reactions.

>With the current turbulent situation, I’ve also been reading/hearing whispers of an impending recession worse than the Great Depression (the credibility of which I’m not sure).

slow down. re-evaluate rationally.

who is this person? what are their past predictions? et cetera.

> if we are currently headed towards some kind of further downturn (writing is on the wall), but other countries are also looking to move away from the US long term, would something like pulling investments and putting into a HYSA until the drop hits be worthwhile?

the answer depends partly on your time horizon. the market can be much more volatile in the short-term, than in the long-term.

there’s a 20-30% drop in the market every 3-5 years, for one reason or another. it’s just part of the process.

there have been multiple periods of 5+ years where the market goes flat. this is also just part of the process.

but long-term you’re more likely to have a positive result.

here’s a chart of the S&P 500 from 2009 to 2017. https://ei.marketwatch.com/Multimedia/2017/08/16/Photos/NS/MW-FS491_Batnic_20170816172302_NS.jpg?uuid=159b379c-82c9-11e7-9e6a-9c8e992d421e

Now, this does start at the bottom after the 2007-2008 meltdown. it was a pretty steep drop in 2008. but the chart is labeled with various crisis points and doomsday predictions, yet the overall trend is positive over this period of time.

>Or should the money be shifted towards foreign instead?

the usual advice is to invest globally at all times, regardless of news or politics or headlines.

>I know there’s no black and white answer, but I’m wondering if there are critical pieces of information I’m missing in my thoughts here.

based on current market valuations, the US stock market *as a whole* is likely to have disappointing returns in the next 10 years or so.

this is not some rando apocalypse prophecy, but rather a simple reality identified by professor Robert Shiller of Yale (among others). short explanation here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dzYjFgdIcAM

the market moves in cycles, and the returns are semi-predictable to a point. not 100% accurate, but better than 50/50 over 10 year periods.

and this information tells us the US market will probably be disappointing until 2030-ish, and international stocks will probably perform better. bonds might also perform better than the US market.

which is why you invest globally at all times.

Warren Buffett said, “You never bet on the end of the world, ’cause that only happens once” . I repeat this line to myself every time I hear the next doomsday bear, and I’ve heard many over 30+ years.