Within the next 2 years, 90K is very likely when we are near the bottom of the bear market of the next cycle. That’s not even that much down from here, and this looks like it should be near the top o this cycle. Both by looking at the pattern of the values of the highs, and the times of the highs.
The definition of insanity would be looking at the big picture of the repeating cycles over and over again and still think things are going to change, and it will never crash again and just keep mooning without any corrections. The last cycle we went down over 4x, even if we reduce it to 3x like it has been reducing every cycle, it would still need to go over 250K, and that’s way above the pattern of the high of the previous cycles.
The bottoms also follow diminishing returns, the last ones were about 3 and 15K, even if it didn’t have diminishing returns that much up from the last bottom would only be 75K, so it’s likely to be a little lower than that.
By diminishing returns I mean look at the global chart in logarithmic, and see how it’s not straight, but convex, curving slowly down, growing slower and slower. From that, you can extrapolate that if the last top was X times higher than the ones before that, then the next top will be less than X times higher than the last high. And the same for the bottom.
Therefore, I’m expecting the next bottom to be below 15 x X = 15 x 15 / 3 = 75K, or else it will not fit this long term pattern. And only after that, I would believe we are not getting below 90K ever again.
And the same for the top, it should be below 69 x X = 69 x 69 / 20 = 238K.
In other words, if you draw a line (on a log chart) between any neighboring tops and neighboring bottoms and extending it, the next top and the next bottom have always ended up below those two lines respectively, no exception in the whole history of bitcoin, so expecting an exception now would be foolish.
edit: whoever is downvoting me will likely get hurt really part if they are not expecting this to happen, such people must have never looked at the bitcoin logarithmic chart. That mentality is going to buy highs and then cry for 3 years.
Next_Statement6145 on
what if the top is in and you end up being the mentally ill one?
3 Comments
Brother NGMI
Within the next 2 years, 90K is very likely when we are near the bottom of the bear market of the next cycle. That’s not even that much down from here, and this looks like it should be near the top o this cycle. Both by looking at the pattern of the values of the highs, and the times of the highs.
The definition of insanity would be looking at the big picture of the repeating cycles over and over again and still think things are going to change, and it will never crash again and just keep mooning without any corrections. The last cycle we went down over 4x, even if we reduce it to 3x like it has been reducing every cycle, it would still need to go over 250K, and that’s way above the pattern of the high of the previous cycles.
The bottoms also follow diminishing returns, the last ones were about 3 and 15K, even if it didn’t have diminishing returns that much up from the last bottom would only be 75K, so it’s likely to be a little lower than that.
By diminishing returns I mean look at the global chart in logarithmic, and see how it’s not straight, but convex, curving slowly down, growing slower and slower. From that, you can extrapolate that if the last top was X times higher than the ones before that, then the next top will be less than X times higher than the last high. And the same for the bottom.
Therefore, I’m expecting the next bottom to be below 15 x X = 15 x 15 / 3 = 75K, or else it will not fit this long term pattern. And only after that, I would believe we are not getting below 90K ever again.
And the same for the top, it should be below 69 x X = 69 x 69 / 20 = 238K.
In other words, if you draw a line (on a log chart) between any neighboring tops and neighboring bottoms and extending it, the next top and the next bottom have always ended up below those two lines respectively, no exception in the whole history of bitcoin, so expecting an exception now would be foolish.
edit: whoever is downvoting me will likely get hurt really part if they are not expecting this to happen, such people must have never looked at the bitcoin logarithmic chart. That mentality is going to buy highs and then cry for 3 years.
what if the top is in and you end up being the mentally ill one?