​It seems like the 30 year mortgage rate used to track the 10 year treasury yield very closely. Post-pandemic, the 30 year mortgage has developed a very wide spread over the 10 year treasury.

    Even this year, the 10 year treasury rate is down significantly, but 30 year mortgage rates have barely budged.

    I was reading the effective duration of a 30 year mortgage is actually closer to 7-10 years because of prepayments, so it’s usually compared to the 10 year treasury rather than the 30 year treasury.

    But I was also noticing that the 10 year treasury rate and 30 year treasury rate have diverged recently. I’m not sure if this partly explains the spread of the 30 year mortgages over 10 year treasuries.

    I don’t understand what has changed since the pandemic. Does it have to do with the period of low interest rates during the pandemic? Or the pace of the increase in rates in 2022-2023?

    Does it have to do with changes in the prepayment risk? Changes in the Fed balance sheet?

    Why is the spread of 30 year mortgages over 10 year treasuries so wide?
    byu/jackandjillonthehill inAskEconomics



    Posted by jackandjillonthehill

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