Four Year Cycle of Bitcoin in 2025

>Since 95% of the bitcoin has been mined, do you is the 4-year cycle for bitcoin still applies?

The 4 year cycle really never applied even in the past because bull markets where all different . For example some bull markets had 2 bull markets in the same year. At best its a rough metric historically because of the 4 year monetary policy.

Since the effects of the halving have less of an impact with each cycle and now we have institutional adoption the “4 year cycle” is even more useless.

> do you think the crash potentially at the end of 2025 will be less violent or volatile since we have institutions and ETFs buying bitcoins now?

I don’t expect this because of the institutional inflows into ETFs and the fact that besides El Salvador governments haven’t even starting to buy Bitcoin yet, and El Salvador is merely buying a mere 1 BTC a day, where we can soon see much larger adoption . Of course a bear market can occur if there is a black swan event or sentiments completely change towards BTC but this is unlikely IMHO

> if we know about the 4 year cycle, why don’t people take advantage of it and sell high and buy low?

1) past performance is not indicative of future results

2) the 4 year cycle was never really that accurate to begin with

3) Bitcoin is in the early stages of adoption with most people skeptical and wary of it still

Here are the adoption periods :

**Innovators** 0 – 2.5%

**Early Adopters** 2.5% – 16%

**Early Majority** 16% – 50%

**Late Majority** 50% – 84%

**Laggards** 84% – 100%

Right now Bitcoin has a mere 4 % global adoption thus in the very early stages of “Early Adopters”