So is the market going to jump with a rate cut or is it already factored in? I can see it going up with a larger than assumed cut or maybe even dropping with a smaller than expect cut.
And what % will the cut be? I am guessing 1/4 point minimum but would love to see a 1/2 point cut as I think that could send market up a point or two. Just don’t know if the Fed will go that fast considering they have moved incredibly slow in the last few years.
What do you think?
How will rate cut affect the market?
byu/Financial-Wolfe ininvesting
Posted by Financial-Wolfe
13 Comments
It already jumped.
.5% rate cut with a sell the news event- market dropping 2-3% immediately after release.
QQQ +30% within 6 months.
Market already seems bullish on a rate cut.
Usually it will spike a little higher if the rate cut is actually confirmed and happens. Especially if the cut is higher than expected.
That said, a rate cut isn’t like getting a bonus at your job. It’s more like getting sent to the ER with a bullet wound. Everyone is celebrating you made it to the ER, but this “good news” is only because you got shot in the first place.
The longer you’re being treated for a bullet wound, the more concerned people start to get.
i think it will jump a little.. then dump a lot .. then jump again anticipating 2nd cut.
It’s MOSTLY factored in… if it’s .25 it’ll be mostly flat or could even go down… if it’s .5 it’ll go up a bit but not as much as you’d think.l and on the other side of it things will start going down as people look past it to the terrible economic numbers
Why are such low effort posts showing up a lot on this forum lately?
If No rate cut ?
Gold mining companies are on the rise. I run a momentum tracker, and was ignoring more and more mining companies showing up on my filter. But over the weekend i decided to check things out.
Gold is going up bc if financial incertainty and weakening dollar. If fed lowers rates it will cause gold to go up more
You can go buy gold, but what I’ve noticed is mining and exploration stocks are going up like crazy. Decided ro shift some position into ETFs for then instead of spreading thin across so many of them.
Priced in
I could see the Fed only cutting by 25 basis points (or not at all, considering recent inflation data) to show that it’s not giving in to Trump.
OTOH, they might cut by 50 points to try to appease him.
It’s a coin flip, IMO.
我说下对于会议的观点，如果9月降息25个基点会被认为是利好，50基点反而会增加对于衰退的担忧，当然还有一种可能就是不降息，那么市场就会大崩，需要担心的就是降息落地以后利好出尽大盘会进行一个回踩，不过回踩也是在一定的范围内的，毕竟还是在降息周期内，利好也是非常的明显，对于风险把控大家还是要有一个度，可以把仓位控制在半仓，短期内的波动还是会存在，降息预期依旧还是驱动力，或者是做些七大科技股，这样承受风险能力也会更好，熟悉我的都知道我是比较喜欢特斯拉跟英伟达的还有加密板块之内，依旧还是在趋势
The market for the most part has already priced in 3 rate cuts of 0.25% for each meeting – one this week then in Oct and Dec. The SEP (summary of economic projections released for this week’s meeting and for the Dec meeting) and what Powell says in the conferences will have more impact than the actual cuts. No SEP update for the Oct meeting.