Ethereum: Where are we on the risk metric?

ETH broke its ATH a few weeks ago. As I noted in earlier posts, the ETH risk metric hasn’t spent sustained time in the heated zone yet (80-100). We only saw a brief push into the low 60s (pink).

Right now: risk purple = 55 : ~$4,469. ETH has been touching this band since Feb 2024 roughly 1.7 years.

History: parabolic runs that began from risk ~50 (purple):

• Feb 2016 (~$4.35): ran until Jan 2018, risk ~88, price $1.4K ( ~2 year run).
• Jun 2020 (~$311), special case, post COVID liquidity: hit risk 95 in Jun 2021 ($4K), ultimate top Nov 2021 at risk 80 ($4,732, 1.5 year run).

This cycle: ETH first reached risk 50 in Feb 2024. It’s been ~1.7 years with no sustained 80-100 yet. Yet, ETH doesn’t have as many full cycles as BTC, so I anchor to Bitcoin history (since 2013, each BTC cycle has tended to extend by ~0.5 year). As the base asset, BTC sets the tempo, I expect ETH to rhyme with that.

Risk Evolution Tracker

Levels to watch:

• If ETH clears and holds above risk 60, my model points next to the 70s risk band: $5,960 on the Dynamic Risk Range.
• If ETH loses the 50 band, a retest of the 40s risk band is likely: $3,377 before any durable breakout.

Bottom line: I won’t call a top until ETH spends real time in 80-100. Size with the bands, DCA in cooler zones, DCA out in hotter ones. Consistency > precision.