Ethereum: Risk Metric, ~ $4157 corresponding to risk 50 over 100

Dynamic Risk range

5 days ago I shared where ETH sits on the risk metric and flagged 2 key levels:

If ETH clears and holds above risk 60, my model points next to the 70s risk band: $5,960 on the Dynamic Risk Range.

If ETH loses the 50 band, a retest of the 40s risk band is likely: $3,377 before any durable breakout.

3 days ago we got the textbook flush: ETH wicked to $3,435 (right into the risk 40s). I added ETH there and feel good about the entry. These washouts are often healthy, historically they’ve cleared weak hands and set up the next leg.

As of now, risk 50 at $4,300. That aligns with the thesis, rebuild above 50, then challenge 60 then 70s. Remember: in strong breakout phases ETH can be violent both ways. 30% pullbacks are normal inside bull runs.

Yes, this sounds bullish, but it’s grounded in bands, not vibes. The recent liquidation shock (roughly $19B in a day) likely scrubbed excess leverage and reignited attention. If history rhymes into Q4 of a post halving year, that kind of cleansing can precede the euphoric stretch. No guarantees just probabilities.

My playbook remains the same: DCA in during low risk zones. DCA out in high risk zones. Let the 80-100 band (sustained) be the tell for a cycle top.

Volatility will stay elevated into yea end. Manage exposure, stick to a plan, and keep your head clear. GLTA.