Historically this stock has gone up Nov-Dec (I think mostly because of idiosyncratic Christmas shopping demand, paired with good beta from Santa Clause rallyes):
2021: +17% from $457 -> $571
2022: -2% (ok that's an exception but market was difficult back then)
2023: +17% from $564 -> $659
2024: +8% from $866 -> $931
The stock is $150 below its ATH and based on the patterns above, I think buying a call here could make sense.
The C1000 (so 5% OTM) 01/17/26 are offered at $29.5, which means if the stock does 17% again, gives me a return of 4x.
So buying it now at $955 seems good. But I'm a bit worried about the time decay. Optiview says it would lose already 20% by mid November if the market stays flat.
Anyone else looking to position themselves for year-end already? Is it too early?
https://s.opti-view.com/31da101c5b
Posted by Capital_Profit_4469
2 Comments
Never too early for Christmas 😉
If your “signal” is triggered simply by November being here, why not wait until then? Saves you two weeks of theta