Absolutely is. Also, so much lending has been privatized, we don’t really have a great handle on how much garbage paper is out there. I don’t believe that our economy can handle an unemployment rate over 6.0% before crumbling. We will see.
Auto loans? Essentially no change YOY and within the long term trend at this stage.
>He noted that the deterioration has been years in the making. Since around 2015, federal debt has doubled, corporate debt has risen by roughly 65%, and consumer debt has increased by nearly 50%.
Almost like GDP is up almost 70% since 2015 and median prime age weekly wages are up 49% over the same time.
But but subprime mortgages.
You mean something that at some point accounted for major minorities of some markets mortgages? That now across the country account for less than 5% of all mortgages? Stop it. Call me when subprime mortgages make up a considerable proportion of the market.
>For the first time since 2021, there are now more job seekers than available positions, underscoring a gradual softening in the labor market.
My god the fucking horror. You mean the way it usually is?
Maybe listen to Jerome Powell that has highlighted that the reason the economy is in this weird balance is because the supply of labor has been steadily decreasing as well.
Call me when prime age employment falls off a point or two.
Don’t get me wrong. I’m extremely curious to see the JOLTS update this week. I’m extremely curious to see how the situation develops. There are real issues. But people are pissing in the wind still, they’ve all been screaming about a recession for almost a decade now and yet….here we are. Patience ya fucks. The data will reveal it, you don’t have to manufacture it.
2 Comments
Absolutely is. Also, so much lending has been privatized, we don’t really have a great handle on how much garbage paper is out there. I don’t believe that our economy can handle an unemployment rate over 6.0% before crumbling. We will see.
Let’s highlight all the ways this is wrong.
First conversation is 90 days late.
Let’s unpack it.
[https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DRALACBS](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DRALACBS)
Delinquency rates on all loans are flat as of 2025Q2.
[https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DRCCLACBS](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DRCCLACBS)
Delinquency rate on credit cards for all commercial banks.
Below the long term trend.
[https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CORCCACBS](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CORCCACBS)
Charge-off rates on credit, below long term trend.
[https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/news/research/2025/20250805](https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/news/research/2025/20250805)
Auto loans? Essentially no change YOY and within the long term trend at this stage.
>He noted that the deterioration has been years in the making. Since around 2015, federal debt has doubled, corporate debt has risen by roughly 65%, and consumer debt has increased by nearly 50%.
[https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1NEeJ](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1NEeJ)
Almost like GDP is up almost 70% since 2015 and median prime age weekly wages are up 49% over the same time.
But but subprime mortgages.
You mean something that at some point accounted for major minorities of some markets mortgages? That now across the country account for less than 5% of all mortgages? Stop it. Call me when subprime mortgages make up a considerable proportion of the market.
>For the first time since 2021, there are now more job seekers than available positions, underscoring a gradual softening in the labor market.
[https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1NEf2](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1NEf2)
My god the fucking horror. You mean the way it usually is?
Maybe listen to Jerome Powell that has highlighted that the reason the economy is in this weird balance is because the supply of labor has been steadily decreasing as well.
Call me when prime age employment falls off a point or two.
Don’t get me wrong. I’m extremely curious to see the JOLTS update this week. I’m extremely curious to see how the situation develops. There are real issues. But people are pissing in the wind still, they’ve all been screaming about a recession for almost a decade now and yet….here we are. Patience ya fucks. The data will reveal it, you don’t have to manufacture it.