oracle doesn't even believe in themselves
i work in industrial hvac in the dmv and have often found myself installing the vertiv systems in data centers. in this climate there's no need to use cooling towers which consume water, we use air chillers which work the same way a window AC does without using evaporation, so there's no controversy in my area about data center water use, which is a major blemish on ai in the minds of the average person. there are many people concerned about electrical grids being overloaded but no one worries about the water. i wondered to myself today why data centers out west use cooling towers instead of geothermal heat pumps, which consume no water after initial fill and offer significant energy savings over time, maybe a 5 year period of the equipment paying for itself.
if anyone thought that these data centers were going to be profitable after 2030 they would be building them in a much different way. geothermal heat pumps do not take considerably longer to install so time to market is not a major factor.
even if ai lives up to the expectations and makes everyone rich data center owners have unaccounted depreciation above and beyond what has been extensively covered in the gpu capex discussion, the buildings they are making will be worthless in a few years.
orcl 110p 1/21/28 still a bargain at 10.10.
vrt 75p 1/21/28 a better deal at 11.50
oracle doesn't even believe in themselves
byu/Dependent_Bike_3112 inwallstreetbets
Posted by Dependent_Bike_3112
24 Comments
Geothermal atw. Clearly no one in the market believes in ORCL 5 year plan past the post earnings bump
I like your funny words magic man. Puts it is
Bro, im electrical engineer. Your logic assumes there is enough electricity to run data centers……let me tell you. This ai clownery will not even get as far as to actually work due to electrictiy shortage. most of data centers they building will not even be online anytime soon, if ever.. why? Just Google how many power plants are being build. Anyone building data centers right now is burning money, its 100% loss. And if you realize that whole usa electrical grid needs to be updated, u short this ai joke to the tits.
Oracle strikes below their 1yr low at $10 premiums is wild. I know you have 2 years, but good luck
The company started as a scam, promoting software they hadn’t even begun writing
ORCL is shit, fundamental doesn’t matter until it does, well it’s the only hyper scaler that has negative FCF, that explains the massive pull back. Market is not as regarded as we thought.
But 110P is also regarded :))
Very interesting post. AI infrastructure is much like the AI bubble in that they’re both going to pop. It won’t matter though bc it’s probably dystopia on the horizon no matter how things shake out. Houses upon houses of cards are in play.
Then oracle and I have something in common
Drumpf juiced the depreciation rules around equipment purchases in March 2025 deliberately to create a cascade of equipment spending that would appear in Q3 after his “liberation day” tanking.
https://tax.thomsonreuters.com/news/trump-pledges-to-restore-tcja-full-bonus-depreciation/
It’s gonna go up again watch idunno TSLY I like one share please
This is the dumbest shit I’ve ever heard. A modern data center requires 50+ MW of continuous cooling. That would require tens of thousands of holes, spread over hundreds of acres. Then there’s the added year plus on the built time. But let’s say you did build it: it would start to lose efficiency because of the amount of heat it would be constantly pulling out wouldn’t be able to disperse quick enough into the ground.
Position: puts on your future finances
This post has so little basis in reality it’s comical
Oracle make the worst ERP software. My company has so many issues with their products that cant be fixed.
[Semianalysis reports](https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/microsofts-ai-strategy-deconstructed) that datacenter depreciation may actually be underestimated, and can reasonably reach 6 years.
“Only worry about the next quarter“ – every current c level exec
I think i find the Michael B’s user in reddit.
The answer is scale and time to power
Vix is pretty high right now, best to wait till after nvda earnings and the vol crush to go long on those options
Geothermal heat pumps are definitely the future but require a large amount of space and are quite expensive at that scale
ai might collapse in 2030 but my port collapses every monday
I’ve been trying to close out defects for the last hour on Aconex. They keep freezing and re-opening. Fuck it, I’m grabbing some puts too.
We are still years behind to see quantum computing but that’s what actually will transform the electric needs to upkeep AI.
Many will tell me I’m crazy but IBM is ahead on the topic and will transform the market just as they did in the 90s with eBusiness and again in the 2010s with Watson. Their problem is they are really bad at capitalizing rather that their huge amount of patents
Great article. One of the executives with Oracle left and invested in his own company http://www.Nextchoice.com and it appears he is going to softly bring a new solution to small and medium sized businesses targeting the POS and Payment Processing to include Mobile and Inventory Management systems. Should be interesting to see how the market diversifies.
Cooling towers last more than 5 years Einstein! Look at those old nuclear plant cooling towers that have been around for decades.