Comparing real estate scenarios

Hello,

I'm new to real estate investing so I wanted to get some perspective on a potential decision I'm looking at. I live in Clermont and have a house worth about $470k with a 3% mortgage holding a $285k loan balance. Payoff is April 2051. I was looking at buying a new home to move into in nearby Montverde for $600k with 20% down with a 5% 30 year promo. The $120k down payment would come from my liquid investments.

My current home mortgage and HOA is $2087 per month and I estimate the new home mortgage and HOA to be around $3687 per month. I should be able to rent my 4 bedroom Clermont home for $2800-3000 per month.

I created a spreadsheet to try to compare two scenarios. One where I stay in my Clermont home with the low mortgage and just continue to invest the $1600 a month difference in the stock market and the down payment of $120k will stay in the stock market. This results in a 10 year increase of $667k combined which includes returns of 8% per year in stocks, equity built from payments on Clermont home and a 3% growth rate for the house price.

For the two house scenario, I estimate the growth to be about $659k which assumes the same rates of growth for the house appreciation at 3% each. About $177k equity built from mortgage payments, cash flow of $600 from the rental per month (reinvested in stocks at 8%).

Not sure if I'm doing the math correct here but it seems like their both pretty close in terms of wealth accumulation. The main difference is staying put would be less risky since I'm not a landlord and all that comes with real estate investing. We would love to have a new home that is larger which is why we're even considering this in the first place. If any one can point out any flaws in my math or reasoning here whether I'm over or under on my estimates, I'd really appreciate it.