Their research team is pointing to improving liquidity and markets pricing in about a 92% chance of a Fed rate cut at the December 9–10 meeting. As of December 4th the odds of a rate cut jumped to 92%, which has often been supportive for risk assets like crypto in past cycles. They're also tracking global money supply which has been expanding lately.
Back in October Coinbase actually predicted weakness in November followed by a December reversal and so far that's playing out. Bitcoin is hovering around $90k after dropping from highs near $100k last month.
However the big wildcard is Fed Chair Jerome Powell's comments during the rate decision press conference. Analysts say if Powell sounds hawkish about 2026 policy it could put a cap on any rally even if they cut rates. His previous hawkish remarks in November contributed to the selloff we just saw.
Market sentiment is still pretty fearful right now. Both institutional and retail investors are hesitant to jump back in which is keeping markets in limbo. The technical picture shows Bitcoin already retested the $80k area and bounced off support tho.
One positive catalyst is speculation that Kevin Hassett might become the next Fed Chair in 2026. He's seen as way more dovish which would be bullish for crypto long term.
So basically the setup looks decent for a December recovery but everyones gonna be watching what Powell says super closely. One wrong comment could derail things fast.
Coinbase is predicting Bitcoin could see a December recovery based on macro conditions but theres some important caveats.
byu/Gullible-Tale9114 inCryptoCurrency
Posted by Gullible-Tale9114
10 Comments
Important caveats – I.e. it could equally go up, go down, or stay the same and they have no better idea than you or me.
They know as much as your pet dog dude
A high probability for a rate cut usually isn’t that good for the market, especially this year. If it actually jumps up afterwards once we get cuts, ill be quite surprised.
I’d like to see the stats on sell the news following a cut announcement. I think it all works out longer term in these scenarios though. Priced in and all that.
Hodl, but look everyday say and get emotional! You all are so stupid! Get upset not having enough when it goes up, but hate when its down!
https://youtube.com/shorts/RVgnh_wdPRk?si=ynfCut7ASdXOwXCk
🤣
Aaaaand it’s going down
These kinds of things are always said around the time of the Fed rate cut and Jerome Powell’s decision. Last time we had rate cuts confirmed and yet look where we are. It won’t really matter what he says as crypto is going into a bear market
Coinbase is a broker. Keep that in mind.
None of that matters.
What Powell says or doesn’t say soon doesn’t matter.
Bitcoin going higher in the long-run matters.
Self-custody and cold storage matter.