The Silver & Gold Data Nobody Wants To Show You | Mike Maloney & Alan Hibbard
Get Mike Maloney’s 1st book for free here: http://www.GoldSilver.com/freebook/?ref=MiningStocks Are mining stocks really a “leveraged” way to play gold… or a trap hiding in plain sight?
In this episode of The GoldSilver Show, Mike Maloney and Alan Hibbard put mining stocks vs. physical gold under the microscope using decades of data—then deliver a simple conclusion: gold has dramatically outperformed even top-tier miners over the long term, and the downside risk in miners can be far more punishing than most investors expect.
You’ll learn:
Why gold vs. miners isn’t a fairytale leverage story
What it means to measure miners in gold (real money), not dollars
How dilution and capital raises can quietly crush returns
The narrow windows when miners can outperform—and why timing is everything
A practical 5-point checklist before you ever buy a miner
If you’re deciding between physical metals and mining equities, this one could save you from years of underperformance.
Chapters
00:00 The breathtaking drawdown (miners priced in gold)
00:23 Stocks vs private placements (and dilution)
02:55 Are miners a leveraged play?
05:45 Ratio chart: when miners beat gold (and when they don’t)
14:17 The 5-criteria checklist for miner investing
5-bullet summary (key takeaways)
Over the long run, gold beats miners—by a lot. Using the Baron’s Gold Mining Index (top-tier miners) vs. gold starting from the same base, they show gold ending far ahead (roughly 6–6.5x better over ~5+ decades).
Miners aren’t “simple leverage” to gold. The charts show the “leverage” tends to be worse on the downside than on the upside, creating long-term divergence even when gold rises.
Measure performance in “real money,” not currency. They argue that looking at miners priced in gold reveals brutal drawdowns (including ~75–90% relative declines depending on the window/measure).
Share dilution is a structural headwind. Mining companies frequently raise capital (especially via private placements), creating new shares that dilute existing holders—Maloney calls the sector “the greatest inflators on earth.”
If you buy miners, treat it like a trade with rules. Their checklist: (1) already own physical, (2) use “gambling currency” you can lose, (3) miners undervalued vs physical, (4) short time horizon, (5) expert help + enough capital/time to diversify.
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22 Comments
top tier miner are probably not the big moneymaker next years. but silver juniors will supposedly outperform gold a lot
Best channel on YT
Thany, Mike and Alan. Other great analysis 😉 we get used to say "money" not currency 😅
My silver miners has risen more than +160% in 11 months so I don't think I agree with Mike.
Dogecoin is a crap coin, and it's still worth hundreds of billions more than say, HBAR. I don't think the fundamental quality of the stock determines the price. It's the sentiment of the market which is usually better measured using technical analysis of the markets over fundamentals.
Yeah that's strange. Some of my mining stocks went down sharply while the price of gold went up or keeps going up. What gives?
I have 5% of my wealth in mining stocks, most have lost but I picked some good ones and I'm so far up 25% unlike the physical that I bought that is up over 100%. Just waiting for the miners to make some serious gains once the rest of the market figures out there's a lot of upside
It seems that you fail to mention that the BGMI index does not automatically include reinvested dividends. That makes a big difference when you compund them and it makes these charts basically worthless and it dilutes most of the points you are making in this video. Using such skewed data could give the impression that this is more of a sales pitch for physical gold and silver rather than giving valuable and unbiased knowledge to investors. Please correct me if I'm wrong.
Great analysis!
Couple of points: if miners extract value from the earth they can't be inflators, they create real value: the one you've been talking about for decades now. Zero game is only in number of shares changing hands, but price of share is determined on the market. If you pick a right miner, you can definitely multply your return on undelying commodity price.
Minimum onces of gold to be comfortable in the future ?
junior miners are like alt coins. Find one that has a following
Slammed on my brakes during that “money” honking noise haha. Maybe use a diff sound for those listening while driving lol
Excellent video on miners. I dumped my losing miners years ago and I stick with physical metal only.
I believe that we have entered into a generational opportunity in the miners that will run for the next 3 – 5 years. They have learned hard lessons and cleaned up their balance sheets and they are printing free cash flow at the same time that their largest input cost, Oil is very low. GDX is up 143% year to date with still very little interest from generalist investors. Oh , did I mention that even after this year’s massive move they are still dirt cheap !
Hey #Mike, what do you think about Samsung SGI announcing a solid state battery technology and its effect on silver markets due to the amount of Ag "REQUIRED" for such tech?
Mike, what do you think about crypto projects that form a DAO around a gold mine? I bought some crypto coins for a project that is tokenizing a gold mine, when you stake the tokens it pays out in PAXG, which is a crypto backed 1:1 by physical gold in Australia and you can take delivery.
I don't want to say the name of the project here because I don't want to look like I'm advertising it. But this concept seems like the future to me if it works. Would love for you to weigh in if you do another video addressing people's comments.
Tells me that gold is getting harder to mine but not getting paid for the difficulty.
If you buy low before it goes up then you should be ok.
I love Mike’s advice and I thank him for getting us into precious metals, but I dare say he is wrong on this one. His chart is showing miners going DOWN in 2025, which is just plain incorrect. Gold has gone up 50 something percent in 2025, and GDXJ has gone up 165 percent. I have made over 300 percent profit in miners for the last year and miners are only going up. Sorry Mike, listening to Peter Schiff on this one.
Gold mining shares have done much better if you include reinvested dividends. You cannot compare if you don’t include dividends (total return). For example the datastream global gold index from the 1st January 1980 to April 2001 returned 170% including divs, but only 30% excluding dividends while gold bullion itself dropped 51%.
Since 1973. Gold miners with dividends have increased 120 times while gold is up by a factor of 68. Excluding dividends gold shares are up only 30 times. So it is completely wrong to say gold miners are a worse investment.
Jeff Clark told me to buy Snow Line Gold when it was $0.58 a share today it’s over $17.00 a share 😳 Glad I listened 😜🚀