Vanguard just released their 10 year outlook for the S&P500 and they are predicting an underwhelming 3.5% to 5.5% average annualized return over the next 10 years.
Since many folks are heavily into those index funds, I’m curious how/if that will change the investing approach that is generally advisable for the set it and forget it types.
Vanguard 10-Year SP500 Outlook
byu/schmooodle infinancialindependence
Posted by schmooodle
13 Comments
No because vanguard cant predict the market
In 2016 they predicted 1% for the next 10 years.
They’ve never been right. So we have that going for us.
No one knows anything about the future.
Wars break out. Populations increase. Technologies advance. Who knows?
Stay the course.
Not. One. Iota.
In 2022, they were expecting an average around 3% through to 2032: [https://www.vanguard.ca/content/dam/intl/americas/canada/en/documents/ISGVEMO_CA-122021_secure.pdf](https://www.vanguard.ca/content/dam/intl/americas/canada/en/documents/ISGVEMO_CA-122021_secure.pdf)
lol
Isn’t that the same thing they predicted in 2020?
It’s better to under promise and over deliver than over promise and under deliver. They live by that philosophy.
They predicted the same thing last year. https://corporate.vanguard.com/content/corporatesite/us/en/corp/who-we-are/pressroom/press-release-vanguard-releases-2025-economic-and-market-outlook-121124.html
My retirement is invested in a Vanguard three-fund portfolio. I read the report, reviewed my portfolio and–I know this may sound extreme to some–took immediate, drastic inaction to save my portfolio from the unknown. I know diversification isn’t for everyone, but sometimes desperate times require *disparate* measures.
No one knows. They probably basing it of off political climate. If the cheeto goes away then things may need to adjust
I will stick with VHVG, the top 2k companies in the developed world. Let’s see.
One thing I learned with the market is that no one can really predict what will happen. Just keep doing your best to save and invest and forget the noise.