IOSG says Bitcoin “honeymoon period” is coming in early 2026 – institutional era just beginning despite gloomy sentiment

IOSG Ventures is framing this market as more “institutional accumulation” than a classic cycle top. Their founding partner Jocy basically says 2025 looks dark on the surface, but it’s also when the institutional era actually starts showing up.

They point to their own estimates here: institutions are now ~24% of the market in their model, while retail has been a big source of selling pressure (they cite a ~66% “exit” figure, but it’s worth reading that as their internal read, not an official stat).

Price-wise, BTC is roughly down ~6% YTD, but it still printed an all-time high around $126,080 back on Oct 6, 2025. So the vibes can feel bearish while the structure underneath is changing.

Timing-wise, IOSG thinks the first half of 2026 could be a “honeymoon period” (midterms aren’t until November), so less political headline whiplash early on. They throw out ranges too: next 3–6 months $87k–$95k, and first half of 2026 $120k–$150k.

One more fix: the “$25B inflows” point is more accurately IBIT alone in 2025, not all Bitcoin ETFs.

Not financial advice, just cleaning up the framing.