I keep seeing YouTube stock analysts say “just spin Starlink and it’ll get a better multiple.” Maybe. I just think the bigger reason is the structure. (Earlier reports: SpaceX has started bank talks for a potential IPO.)
Starlink is the part with a solid cash-flow story, whereas the rest of SpaceX is still a massive capex burn. Splitting them makes the narrative easier to sell and gives insiders an easier liquidity path. It avoids putting the entire SpaceX bundle under constant public-market pressure. The risk is it might lose the space halo and get priced like a telecom. Then the whole debate becomes ARPU, churn, and terminal subsidies.
If SpaceX goes public in 2026, what happens to Starlink?
byu/shinigami__0 ininvesting
Posted by shinigami__0
2 Comments
That’s the real tradeoff, spin-off clarity vs. losing the “space premium.” Starlink alone likely gets cleaner valuation and liquidity, but once it’s public, it’s judged like a telecom on ARPU and churn instead of vision, which could cap upside
Does Starlink’s cash flow account for all the launch capacity it’s receiving from SpaceX? It needs to launch 1000+ new satellites each year just to keep current service.