Given the current macro environment – cool core CPI with PCE likely to follow (if historical behavior repeats), low VIX, USD/JPY carry unwind, thin holiday liquidity/volume…
How are you positioning your portfolio into January?
I'm mostly in cash now (~80%) with the exception of a few medium-term positions I identified as cheap relative volatility with minimal theta drag: long calls on GOOGL, NVDA, SOFI. Also in the CC leg of a wheel position on F
I feel if you have a short-term focus (< 30DTE) you're likely to eat theta over the next week or two until institutions are back in January and start re-deploying capital. With thin liquidity and low VIX likely meaning grinding moves, just lowers the likelihood of getting enough benefit from delta/gamma, while fast approaching the steep part of the theta curve.
The carry trade is an interesting aspect, but nothing yet suggests an unwind is imminent. Would need to see a VIX spike along with the USD/JPY drop with momentum. IWM puts are an interesting play to monitor though, since small caps are likely to get hit harder if the unwind is violent.
Cool CPI, Low VIX, USD/JPY Carry Unwind positioning?
byu/Jammer250 inoptions
Posted by Jammer250