XRP forming a textbook compression pattern ahead of ETF decision window

Been trading XRP on and off since 2021 and the current setup is one of the cleaner technical patterns I've seen on this asset in a while.

Looking at the daily chart, we've got XRP consolidating in a tightening range between $2.15 support and $2.45 resistance for nearly three weeks now. Volume has been steadily declining during this compression which typically precedes a significant directional move. The Bollinger Bands are the tightest they've been since November 2024, right before that 180% run. 

What makes this setup particularly interesting is the fundamental backdrop. We have the spot ETF speculation heating up again with multiple filings under review. Bloomberg analysts recently bumped their approval odds, and historically XRP has shown 15%+ single day moves on major regulatory news. The correlation between XRP and regulatory headlines remains one of the strongest alpha signals in crypto right now.

From a risk management perspective, I've been positioning for both scenarios. The breakout target above $2.45 projects to roughly $2.85 based on the measured move of the consolidation range. Breakdown below $2.15 opens up $1.90 as the next major support where we saw heavy accumulation in January.

My current approach is scaling into a small long position here with stops below $2.10, then adding on a confirmed breakout above $2.48 with volume confirmation. If we break down instead, I'll flip short targeting that $1.90 zone. XRP is maybe 8% of my trading portfolio so I'm not overexposed but the R:R here looks attractive.

For the perpetual positions I've been using BYDFi since they tend to handle the volatility spikes better than some alternatives, though honestly execution quality varies across all these platforms depending on the day. Keeping leverage conservative regardless because news driven moves can gap right through your stop and liquidate you before you can react.

Curious what levels others are watching on XRP right now.