What are the determinants of a currency’s change in exchange rate?

If I had to guess what are the inputs of a currency's CHANGE in exchange rate for a floating currency, I would think that the following are important:

• the change in net exports – I thought that when a nation's net exports increase, then so does the strength of their currency. In the case of India, this is not the case.
• the target inflation rate also doesn't seem to play a part in this also.

Here's a really nice website that shows you how a currency has performed relative to the USD over time. You can see that the Swedish, Russian, and the Hungarian currency all appreciated relative to the USD.

I notice that Sweden's exports have decreased a bit, and their imports have decreased even more – exports down 1.6% and imports down 2.0% –, but for some reason, their currency is strengthening relative to the USD. Their target inflation rate is also 2%, so their currency, using my logic, should have increased but not by much.