I'm a sucker for statistics and data, so I thought I'll look into what Crypto (Bitcoin, but that's pretty good indicator of what the rest of the market does these days) does during the holidays.
Simple, obvious inefficiencies are things like Renaissance Technologies took advantage of, or in other industries, Money Ball. Days of the week, etc. So it's not so far out there to look what really happens during the holidays. So without further ado
Christmas is generally bad, actually most of the Christmas holidays are.
The Grinch visits December 24th and tries to ruin it for everyone.
The days until new year are then mixed, on average they turn slightly positive in count and return.
Volume is generally low though.
Interestingly, that isn't the whole story.
Because if you include January 1st until January 5th, the whole picture is reverse.
The mean daily returns in the new year are enough in size and frequency to make the whole period positive overall, and not by a little, double the daily average return.
0.58% vs 0.27%.
The new year days are 44 Winning days vs 25 Losing days, that's actually insane.
The returns are too on January 2nd, and 5th, historically:
2.9% 11/13 winning days, 2026 still to be determined.
January 5 is similar.
Year by year we have 2013-2014 (37.33%), 2020-2021 (36.73%) and the 2011-2012 season of about 29%.
Interestingly, as you can see above, it looks quite even, with a few major losses, 2021 and 2014.
And a Christmas rally that turned around in 2016-2017.
I guess Trump is even responsible for the past ruined New years.
The chart is interactive. I hope you find it fun, it's not serious but just a bit light for the holidays.
How do you think Bitcoin does over the holidays? I analyzed 7.35 million minutes of price action since 2012 to answer this historically
byu/obolli inethtrader
Posted by obolli
2 Comments
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Hope it tanks.