Every thread here and elsewhere asking about top picks for 2026 has at least one space stock recommendation like RKLB or ASTS, but are they really a great investment when they're priced for perfection and at higher multiples than the industry leader?
Why space stocks will struggle in 2026:
- Space business requires a ton of capital, that means constant dilution. Both companies have tripled and quadrupled their shares in just few years but will still need much more capital to reach breakeven or in the case of ASTS, just to start generating revenue.
- Space will always have very high "cost of revenue" associated with it, will always have high R&D, and G&A, yet they're priced like software companies with low cost of revenue and low R&Ds and G&As.
- Space is dangerous, one thing goes wrong and the stock takes a massive hit overnight. For instance, ASTS has to launch 100+ satellites (they launched 1 in all of 2025) and one setback and they're immediately months behind schedule. There's a risk discount that should always be assigned to space stocks.
- Both companies are competing against the most dominant space company and the richest and deepest-pocketed billionaire in the world. SpaceX just spent $20 billion to acquire global spectrum that will make their path to offering D2D service so much easier and quicker than ASTS. SpaceX is also about 3-5 years ahead of RKLB on tech and reusable rockets.
- Both companies are still playing catch-up to SpaceX. In the case of ASTS, they mostly depend on SpaceX to launch their satellites in the near future.
- SpaceX IPO will literally wipe out most retail and institutional interest, why own a second-fiddle wannabe when you can own the real leader? Why buy RIVN or LCID when you can buy TSLA?
I still think space companies will make great investments in 2026 but some of the current valuations are absurd. RKLB trading at 70 Price-to-Sales ratio. ASTS is still a per-revenue company yet it's valued at close to $30 billion!!!
Posted by cbusoh66
26 Comments
Bro lives in fear smh
I hope MDA space lists in the US to make this list. It’s profitable, decent PE compared to other space related companies. Has a ton of government contracts including defence, should be on most people’s watch list for the industry.
Tell me you don’t know shit about ASTS without telling me you don’t know shit about ASTS.
Obviously this person hasn’t done their DD. Elon is that you bro? Lay off the ketamine
I’d buy small amounts of all three. The upside is far larger than a known downside. I do feel like SpaceX is the clear winner since they have the space lift capability down pat.
That’s good advise, but you can trade it if you are afraid to invest.
for the most part they’ve shot their wad already. RKLB was a buy under 10, now I wouldn’t fuck with it
“Why own second fiddle to a wannabe…” It seems like you know next to nothing about Rocket Labs. Im not saying their current valuation isnt really high, but you’re really showing your ignorance here
Beyond the comments that are either telling you to screw off or calling you an Elon shill, let’s just consider what you said about playing catch up to SpaceX. While that may be true, isn’t SpaceX in a slightly different category of launches when compared to Rocketlab? Also, isn’t the US DOD also one that hands out contracts to multiple organizations so as to not favor one specific company? So in that case, doesn’t Rocketlab stand to get government money anyways?
I’m not very knowledgeable about this space (haha), so I’m simply just trying to start a conversation. My current exposure to this industry is simply a small RKLB position that was a birthday gift to myself.
Edit: Why buy rivian or lucid when you can buy Tesla? Well, if the three companies were actively building vehicles for the army, I would buy all three. This is not a good comparison
My bull thesis on RKLB, without going into the numbers, 2026 and beyond catalyst, and breakdown of launch vs space systems (the backbone of the company) is simple: space travel and exploration is only going to become a more and more integral part of our lives as time goes on and Rocket Lab will play a key role in those ventures whether through launch itself or manufacturing. Plus, Rocket Lab has amazing leadership.
If I’m (32M) right, I FIRE. Retire in late 40s to early 50s.
If I’m wrong, my 401k will be there for me and I retire in my early to mid 60s.
I’m willing to live with this risk.
Position: 2300 shares at $49.44.
Points 5 and 6 show how little you know about ASTS.
Reddit is so delusional calling meta a dead company in 2022 but calling asts the future with a billion dollar valuation and no revenue
bought and sold it. no need to buy in 2026. the ad hominems in this thread prove it.
I see at least one thread a day doubting either of these companies. I just buy and hold RKLB because I think they have a visionary CEO and a fantastic management team making strategic acquisitions to truly become an end to end space company. My timeline is at about 7-8 years on this and I imagine my investment will be even more life changing than it already is.
What a casual low effort take. You should let someone who spends more than 5mins of effort manage your money
RKLB just earned Prime contractor status with the government with last 800M contract. that gives them ability to work on the highest level govt contracts. It is also on governments interest to diversify away from musk and spacex. they dont want a monopoly and many in government dont like him. neutron will make them more competitive with spacex.
If you think am rklb does is launch rockets, you better look again.
Asts is not even in the same business as SpaceX and rklb.
They’re not priced for perfection. Both companies have execution risks (ASTS especially) and can easily go higher if they execute well.
I was a chicken and bought only 1000€ of RKLB at 6$
You’re immediately wrong in the first sentence, then continue to be wrong with almost every point.
To start SpaceX is aiming for an IPO at over 100x sales, so even though RKLB is expensive at 60x sales it’s still significantly cheaper than SpaceX. Also SpaceX is fairly mature and a few years away from the next big sales catalyst where RKLB is growing faster with Neutron coming soon giving it a big boost to sales, lower the valuation.
1. Space is expensive, can’t deny that. Doesn’t mean there will be constant dilution. RKLB is pretty forward about not wanting to dilute, though they did this year because of the valuation. Honestly it’d be dumb for them *not* to dilute at these valuations. But every sale of shares has a plan, like a merger or r&d it isn’t just selling to sell.
2. Yes space requires a lot of r&d but once they get there the expenses aren’t that crazy. RKLB especially, the r&d expense for neutron is about $300m. Neutron will be one of the fastest rockets to launch with the cheapest budget ever. Sure SpaceX has unlimited funding, but it also means they aren’t as thoughtful and careful about their designs. That has a benefit where they can blow shit up and find the fault, but is it really better than just having a good design from the start?
3. Sure this one is valid. Every company has risks but space is pretty damn hard.
4. RKLB is barely competing with SpaceX. SpaceX does heavy launch and eventually mega launch and small to medium more bespoke launches. Sorta like taking a bus vs a private car, SpaceX will get you to space with other customers (unless you pay full price to get it on your own) while RKLB will get YOU where you want to be at a cheaper overall price even tho it’s more expensive/kg. RKLB also is mostly space systems and is a leader there, something like 70-80% of space flights have RKLB systems. ASTS is competing more with SpaceX, but they have their own tech that is patented and deals with telecoms. So it may look like it’s tiny company vs SpaceX but it’s really a tiny company + the majority of telecoms vs a tiny part of SpaceX.
5. ASTS isn’t doing launch, they use SpaceX but don’t need them since RKLB exists. RKLB is a couple years behind SpaceX but the rate of development and launch cadence is significantly faster than SpaceX. In part due to SpaceX clearing the way, but regardless they’re on a better track with a lower budget and less failures.
6. SpaceX ipo will bring more investors into the industry. Currently space isn’t super popular so the more attention it gets the better it is for everyone. Your comparison in EVs isn’t the same, RKLB has a successful and growing business and is the leader in space systems. Rivn was always a shit company with hardly any sales and super expensive product. LCID is a hype company riding Tesla’s coattails. RKLB and asts are established before SpaceX was super popular and before the ipo.
Maybe do some research before talking out of your ass
Fair points. Space stocks are exciting, but the valuations assume everything goes right while dilution, delays, and SpaceX dominance are real risks.
Rocket lab and spacex are top dogs but don’t have much more growth opportunities. Look to smaller companies like FLY, intuitive machines, etc for real money making opportunities.
what do people think about Firefly Aerospace (FLY) as a space pick.
price to sales for FLY is about half that of RKTL.
and the option premiums are insane for buy / write strategies.
Again another space stock post/comment…. sigh…
They’re a total gamble on a capital intensive industry with unproven margins. I’m staying away.
Fair points. Good post. Good discussions.
The fact you’re being downvoted and ridiculed so much OP tells you all you need to know.