The EIA predicts WTI to be in the low 50s in 2026 because of a predicted oil glut and economic slowdown.
However historically they have been more wrong than right.
The 2010–2014: The EIA chronically underestimated US production growth for years, leading to perpetually "too high" price forecasts until the 2014 crash reset reality.
2019-2022: The EIA has a bias toward underestimating demand rebound resilience. Historically the EIA has missed demand growth to the downside in 11 of the last 13 years.
The 2022-2024: Now the EIA claims "remarkable accuracy" for the last 2 years. However it was a range-bound market ($70–$90). Predicting stability during a stable period is not skill; it's luck.
The EIA does not forecast. They are basically undergrad level linear regressions lover.
The current EIA forecast for 2026 contains a massive logic error that history suggests will fail. EIA Prediction:
WTI Prices crash to $51/bbl.
US Production hits ~13.6 million bpd (record highs).
That is not supported by reality. 2015/2016 when WTI hit $50, US rig counts collapsed, and production rolled over.
The EIA assumes Volume is independent of Price. In reality, low prices cure high supplies.
What the EIA's supply glut prediction basically has priced in maximum pessimism and an irrational producer that keeps the tap on at a loss and the market believes it.
This in my opinion creates the perfect arb opportunity to buy cheap crude now and flip for a profit in the future.
Make EIA's mistake your profits – oil price to $70 in 2026
byu/TheCuriousBread ininvesting
Posted by TheCuriousBread
1 Comment
Of course I COULD be wrong. This is how.
If China enters a depression (not just a slowdown), demand drops faster than US Shale can cut supply. WTI could hit $40.
If WTI drops to $50 and Rig Counts don’t drop, the EIA’s “production resilience” theory is correct, and we are about to lose our lunch.
If you are going to make this trade, you’re gonna have to look at China and US rig counts very closely.