In 2025, gold became one of the best-performing major asset classes globally, with cumulative gains of over 70% for the year, while the S&P 500 rose by only around 17%. Expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts have reduced the opportunity cost of holding gold, and ongoing geopolitical tensions have further strengthened its role as the preferred safe-haven asset this year.Looking ahead to 2026, will gold continue its advance towards the USD 5,000 level, or is the rally more likely to slow into a period of consolidation? Do ordinary investors still have opportunities in gold equities and gold ETFs? What are your views?
How much further can the “crazy bull” run in gold go in 2026?
byu/Jajuyns ininvesting
Posted by Jajuyns
15 Comments
Until the market tanks. The fact that gold is doing any of this is my biggest recession indicator.
Gold? Silver just went crazy high. I caught most of the upside but in the last week its gone nutso.
Everything is a meme now, until a lot of people lose their shirts
hey pal 🙂
nobody knows!
yes.
you can look up the previous 1000 identical posts.
I don’t know, and I don’t worry about it. I have a permanent 7.5% allocation for gold, and I rebalance periodically. Reading tea leaves is hard, so I think the most rational thing to do is have a portfolio you’re comfortable with for the long run with its ups, downs, and sideways. But as a curious person (not as an investor), I’m also curious. We’ve been in an insane equity bull run and gold is still outperforming by a mile (not only this year). I don’t know if we’ve ever seen this before.
How much higher do you think the US debt can go? Have you looked at the chart on *that* crazy run?
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEBTN
Do you think the debt will just magically start levelling off and going down?
Since 1971, the U.S. has not had a single fiscal year where its total public debt ended lower than it started.
Maybe 2026 will be the first?
If so, and they *somehow* introduce fiscal responsibility, then the value of gold will indeed start going down (we’re talking about a long term view here, I’m sure there will be large fluctuations in price bla bla bla)
It’s going to go for years to come. Monetary regime change moves very slowly
Until the war. But keep buying.
I think a lot of people are anchoring too hard on recent performance. Gold doing 70 percent in a year doesn’t automatically mean it runs another massive leg without pauses. Historically, after this kind of move, gold usually chops or consolidates for a while unless there’s a new shock.
The bullish case for 2026 still makes sense if real rates fall, central banks keep buying, and geopolitics stay messy. In that scenario, higher prices aren’t crazy. But USD 5000 feels more like an extreme tail outcome than a base case, especially without a recession or a proper monetary reset.
For ordinary investors, I see gold more as a hedge and diversifier than a return engine from here. Gold equities can work if margins expand and costs stay under control, but they’re much riskier than people think and behave more like volatile stocks than “safe haven” assets. ETFs are fine if someone wants exposure without company risk, but timing still matters.
Personally, I’d expect more sideways action with volatility rather than a straight line up. Anyone buying now should be comfortable holding through drawdowns, not expecting another 70 percent year back to back.
Gold spiked because central banks around the world bought more gold as a hedge against the dollar due to the Trump tariffs.
JP Morgan predicts central bank buying will dip to 755 tonnes and Goldman Sachs predicts 840 tonnes of year. 2025 was 1000+ tonnes. So we could see a 15-30% decrease in gold purchases. This could create a downward price cycle. Those who borrowed to buy gold will get liquidated and forced to sell, which will further drive down prices and encourage more liquidation. IMO we are in a gold bubble that will pop. My prediction would be later 2026 for when this happens.
7k per ounce.
$125 silver.
Longforecast.com
No one knows.
Topped out for now
Debt and spending going up because congress is incompetent = gold going up
That’s it.
🥱