“Employers have announced 1,170,821 job cuts this year through November, an increase of 54% from the 761,358 announced in the first 11 months of 2024.
Year-to-date job cuts have reached the highest level since 2020, when there were 2,227,725 cuts announced through November amid the COVID-19 pandemic.”
Something else to consider, the rates of the tariffs were drastically scaled back from the rates that a lot of people were freaking out over. The figures have changed so often that it’s been hard to keep track of who’s paying what, and what industries have special carve outs
chronoit on
It’s because they pulled back on a majority of the tarriffs they announced and then positioned the entire economy around a single industry that the government is pushing tons of money and effort into.
The tariffs themselves have done damage to small businesses that isn’t readily apparent but we are already seeing stories about businesses who import items that can’t realistically be replaced by US products go under and other struggling as costs have risen.
Even walmarts thanksgiving day package saw massive pullback. Same price but less items and lower quality items while the government touted some made up 20% cost reduction number. So some of this is almost certainly as the article mentions problems with number collection and comparission.
We are going to see even more difficulty next year as healthcare costs massively rise, student loans are going out of forbearance (and even into wage garnishment) while inflation remains sticky around 3%+. Frontloaded stock is likely gone at this point so anything being imported is seeing the higher associated costs and the price increases in products like coffee aren’t likely to see reductions despite “exemptions”.
I don’t think the economy will crash persay but the idea that this money orgy can continue forever just on AI seems like a fantasy.
Faroutman1234 on
The tariffs are exposing the truth about corporate America. They are swimming in profits due to low taxes and the current tariffs are just an annoyance. They still have money left over to buy back shares and juice their stock options. They don’t even need to raise prices unless they think they can get away with it and blame the tariffs. I would like to see taxes on ordinary wages cut in half and tariffs increased to cover it.
Give_em_Some_Stick on
I think it is still too early to assess the impact. Companies that could increased inventories before tariffs were imposed to cushion the shock. In the case of Canadian exports to the U.S., except for sector specific tariffs (steel, aluminum) about 90% of goods are CUSMA compliant. If Trump decides to blow this up in 2026 then there will be a greater shock. I’m not saying any of this will crash the U.S. economy, just that we are still early in this “game” to know the real impact.
GusTheKnife on
Short answer: they HAVE crashed the US economy.
Trump was 100% right! His tariffs didn’t cause a recession!” I’ve been hearing this in the media.
First off, most of his tariffs were never implemented. When the bond market started to melt down, he caved.
When he announced sector-specific tariffs, the business leaders of those industries met with him at the White House, grovelled and begged, told him how great he is, and gave him gifts made of gold (all of which he loves) and he always dropped the tariffs the next day. Apple, Meta, automakers, Swiss watch importers etc.
The areas where he DID keep most of the tariffs (construction, agriculture and retail) have been slammed badly. Their stocks are at 52-week lows. Agriculture needed a $12-billion bailout.
Davekinney0u812 on
The market’s holding up thanks to huge deficit spending and bond issuance flooding the system with liquidity. I think it’s basically kicking the can down the road. Many expect this won’t end well, and money printing (or renewed QE) could be next if things turn south. Kicking the can down the road……..to me, it seems unnatural and nature will win.
TroutCharles99 on
Tariffs are a few-tenths-of-GDP drag, not a multi-percent macro event, which is exactly why they hurt but do not wreck a large economy like the U.S. The US has absorbed them…
Bud_wiser_hfx on
I doubt most of them actually happened. The bureaucracy required to enforce and collect tariffs can’t keep up to how fast Trump changes his mind.
AvailableYak8248 on
People are the cost. Any one saying this was going to crash the economy was insane.
A few things to consider. 1. Companies and consumers are the costs in one way or another. 2. Tariff cost dropped, it was lower for a lot. Look at coffee beans for example. 3. It definitely hurt the economy just won’t kill/crash it
Appropriate-Word7156 on
As stupid as the guy is, I think a lot of this was fear driven by big corporations. Plus he backed out most of them too once the bond market spoke up.
josh34583 on
First, we chickened out of the doomsday tariffs. Had we actually pulled the trigger on the promised tariffs, things would have been significantly worse. Second, the US “economy” is entirely AI speculation, the rest of the economy is already in recession.
showmethedata17 on
prices on most every day goods are up, and housing remains unaffordable for many, probably in part due to tariffs
And healthcare costs are going up for many people as well because the Republicans have had a concept of a plan for years ……
kravbyrobbins on
Ezra Klein posted a great podcast episode about this last week. Had two economists who talked about this very question.
Better to listen to it than read my poorly regurgitated summary, but it’s basically tariffs changed many times, and everyone throughout the supply chain seemed to tacitly agree to take the hit such that the end consumer wasn’t as affected as originally predicted.
ay1mao on
1. The economy hasn’t completely felt the effects of the tariffs yet.
2. GDP is being propped up by capex spending on AI and consumer spending (facilitated by credit cards)
3. Bigger threats to American economic stability come from a softening labor market
ThisIsAbuse on
The top 20% (okay maybe top 10%) are not really affected by tariffs or inflation- and their spending is carrying the economy right now.
The bottom 80% are suffering, they are cutting corners, using debt to pay for food, using food banks, loosing their cars, etc….
Also, spending on AI is carrying alot of the market and economy. Take away the Mag 7/10 and the markets look flat or worse.
It is a very strange economy.
Big_Bookkeeper1678 on
People still need to eat, get healthcare, live somewhere, get to work and entertain themselves.
The oligarchs know this, and figure that they will let the government go into more and more debt (they plan to blame the Democrats for ‘spending too much’ later), raise tariffs so that THEY don’t have to pay taxes, and see how much blood they can get from a stone.
But there is a reckoning coming…less people are having children…people ARE starting to cut back on discretionary spending…and debt is spiraling out of control.
Fun-Advisor7120 on
“Why hasn’t smashing my foot with a hammer caused me to have a fatal heart attack”.
This is the wrong question and a false choice framing.
The tariffs alone would not “crash” the economy, especially because they are so inconsistent and have been waived for many things . They have absolutely hurt the economy, in some sectors very badly, and people are suffering as a result. That’s not the same as full blown Great Depression style “crash”.
Raikou0215 on
The big corporations got exceptions and workarounds (and they’re still doing domestic layoffs), but small businesses crashed and burned. We just don’t hear about the small fish.
olionajudah on
What is meant here by “crashed”?
Inflation is out of control. The middle class is disappearing. The wealth class has stolen everything. What exactly do they expect a crash to look like?
oldschoolology on
Corporations won’t be impacted, because they can charge double whatever their input costs are and just blame it on tariffs. That gouging increases their earnings and debt capacity. So the stock market rallies.
For Main Street, about million corporate jobs were lost last month, which has yet to hit the economic numbers. Many consumers buy on credit. When that merry go round stops, the economy will probably be impacted negatively.
Allegedly, GDP increased (if the numbers are even true) because of the increased cost of health premiums and massive government spending not actual production.
bmwbiker1 on
Raising prices creates a situation where you become the first loser. In my industry our company has been absorbing massive losses to retain market share of services and support. For our product line, Double digit price increases are inevitably coming in the first quarter of 2026.
Complex_Draw_6335 on
It did, or rather it stalled the real economy.
Total economic growth this year is similar to last year, but 80-92% of that GDP growth is tech-related (specifically AI). Most other sectors are stalled out or in a recession.
Food banks can’t see tens or even hundreds of percent YOY increases in clients country-wide if the real economy is doing well. Moving a ton of money out of the economy into a non-revenue-generating holding pen is not economic activity – hell, it’s not even banking or stockpiling. That money is gone. Poof. Non-circulating.
80-92% of GDP growth this year was building a giant pile of rocks. Maybe we can one day use those rocks for something, but in real terms, it is a giant pile of rocks.
This is what we get for using GDP as a synonym for valuable production. Not all production has value, or even is production.
passedlives on
Do we collect actual data anymore, or does the administration just crap out a number? Probably the second so we can have news stories like this one.
24 Comments
“Employers have announced 1,170,821 job cuts this year through November, an increase of 54% from the 761,358 announced in the first 11 months of 2024.
Year-to-date job cuts have reached the highest level since 2020, when there were 2,227,725 cuts announced through November amid the COVID-19 pandemic.”
https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/us-layoffs-soar-past-1-1m-2025-highest-level-since-pandemic.amp
Something else to consider, the rates of the tariffs were drastically scaled back from the rates that a lot of people were freaking out over. The figures have changed so often that it’s been hard to keep track of who’s paying what, and what industries have special carve outs
It’s because they pulled back on a majority of the tarriffs they announced and then positioned the entire economy around a single industry that the government is pushing tons of money and effort into.
The tariffs themselves have done damage to small businesses that isn’t readily apparent but we are already seeing stories about businesses who import items that can’t realistically be replaced by US products go under and other struggling as costs have risen.
Even walmarts thanksgiving day package saw massive pullback. Same price but less items and lower quality items while the government touted some made up 20% cost reduction number. So some of this is almost certainly as the article mentions problems with number collection and comparission.
We are going to see even more difficulty next year as healthcare costs massively rise, student loans are going out of forbearance (and even into wage garnishment) while inflation remains sticky around 3%+. Frontloaded stock is likely gone at this point so anything being imported is seeing the higher associated costs and the price increases in products like coffee aren’t likely to see reductions despite “exemptions”.
I don’t think the economy will crash persay but the idea that this money orgy can continue forever just on AI seems like a fantasy.
The tariffs are exposing the truth about corporate America. They are swimming in profits due to low taxes and the current tariffs are just an annoyance. They still have money left over to buy back shares and juice their stock options. They don’t even need to raise prices unless they think they can get away with it and blame the tariffs. I would like to see taxes on ordinary wages cut in half and tariffs increased to cover it.
I think it is still too early to assess the impact. Companies that could increased inventories before tariffs were imposed to cushion the shock. In the case of Canadian exports to the U.S., except for sector specific tariffs (steel, aluminum) about 90% of goods are CUSMA compliant. If Trump decides to blow this up in 2026 then there will be a greater shock. I’m not saying any of this will crash the U.S. economy, just that we are still early in this “game” to know the real impact.
Short answer: they HAVE crashed the US economy.
Trump was 100% right! His tariffs didn’t cause a recession!” I’ve been hearing this in the media.
First off, most of his tariffs were never implemented. When the bond market started to melt down, he caved.
When he announced sector-specific tariffs, the business leaders of those industries met with him at the White House, grovelled and begged, told him how great he is, and gave him gifts made of gold (all of which he loves) and he always dropped the tariffs the next day. Apple, Meta, automakers, Swiss watch importers etc.
The areas where he DID keep most of the tariffs (construction, agriculture and retail) have been slammed badly. Their stocks are at 52-week lows. Agriculture needed a $12-billion bailout.
The market’s holding up thanks to huge deficit spending and bond issuance flooding the system with liquidity. I think it’s basically kicking the can down the road. Many expect this won’t end well, and money printing (or renewed QE) could be next if things turn south. Kicking the can down the road……..to me, it seems unnatural and nature will win.
Tariffs are a few-tenths-of-GDP drag, not a multi-percent macro event, which is exactly why they hurt but do not wreck a large economy like the U.S. The US has absorbed them…
I doubt most of them actually happened. The bureaucracy required to enforce and collect tariffs can’t keep up to how fast Trump changes his mind.
People are the cost. Any one saying this was going to crash the economy was insane.
A few things to consider. 1. Companies and consumers are the costs in one way or another. 2. Tariff cost dropped, it was lower for a lot. Look at coffee beans for example. 3. It definitely hurt the economy just won’t kill/crash it
As stupid as the guy is, I think a lot of this was fear driven by big corporations. Plus he backed out most of them too once the bond market spoke up.
First, we chickened out of the doomsday tariffs. Had we actually pulled the trigger on the promised tariffs, things would have been significantly worse. Second, the US “economy” is entirely AI speculation, the rest of the economy is already in recession.
prices on most every day goods are up, and housing remains unaffordable for many, probably in part due to tariffs
And healthcare costs are going up for many people as well because the Republicans have had a concept of a plan for years ……
Ezra Klein posted a great podcast episode about this last week. Had two economists who talked about this very question.
Better to listen to it than read my poorly regurgitated summary, but it’s basically tariffs changed many times, and everyone throughout the supply chain seemed to tacitly agree to take the hit such that the end consumer wasn’t as affected as originally predicted.
1. The economy hasn’t completely felt the effects of the tariffs yet.
2. GDP is being propped up by capex spending on AI and consumer spending (facilitated by credit cards)
3. Bigger threats to American economic stability come from a softening labor market
The top 20% (okay maybe top 10%) are not really affected by tariffs or inflation- and their spending is carrying the economy right now.
The bottom 80% are suffering, they are cutting corners, using debt to pay for food, using food banks, loosing their cars, etc….
Also, spending on AI is carrying alot of the market and economy. Take away the Mag 7/10 and the markets look flat or worse.
It is a very strange economy.
People still need to eat, get healthcare, live somewhere, get to work and entertain themselves.
The oligarchs know this, and figure that they will let the government go into more and more debt (they plan to blame the Democrats for ‘spending too much’ later), raise tariffs so that THEY don’t have to pay taxes, and see how much blood they can get from a stone.
But there is a reckoning coming…less people are having children…people ARE starting to cut back on discretionary spending…and debt is spiraling out of control.
“Why hasn’t smashing my foot with a hammer caused me to have a fatal heart attack”.
This is the wrong question and a false choice framing.
The tariffs alone would not “crash” the economy, especially because they are so inconsistent and have been waived for many things . They have absolutely hurt the economy, in some sectors very badly, and people are suffering as a result. That’s not the same as full blown Great Depression style “crash”.
The big corporations got exceptions and workarounds (and they’re still doing domestic layoffs), but small businesses crashed and burned. We just don’t hear about the small fish.
What is meant here by “crashed”?
Inflation is out of control. The middle class is disappearing. The wealth class has stolen everything. What exactly do they expect a crash to look like?
Corporations won’t be impacted, because they can charge double whatever their input costs are and just blame it on tariffs. That gouging increases their earnings and debt capacity. So the stock market rallies.
For Main Street, about million corporate jobs were lost last month, which has yet to hit the economic numbers. Many consumers buy on credit. When that merry go round stops, the economy will probably be impacted negatively.
Allegedly, GDP increased (if the numbers are even true) because of the increased cost of health premiums and massive government spending not actual production.
Raising prices creates a situation where you become the first loser. In my industry our company has been absorbing massive losses to retain market share of services and support. For our product line, Double digit price increases are inevitably coming in the first quarter of 2026.
It did, or rather it stalled the real economy.
Total economic growth this year is similar to last year, but 80-92% of that GDP growth is tech-related (specifically AI). Most other sectors are stalled out or in a recession.
Food banks can’t see tens or even hundreds of percent YOY increases in clients country-wide if the real economy is doing well. Moving a ton of money out of the economy into a non-revenue-generating holding pen is not economic activity – hell, it’s not even banking or stockpiling. That money is gone. Poof. Non-circulating.
80-92% of GDP growth this year was building a giant pile of rocks. Maybe we can one day use those rocks for something, but in real terms, it is a giant pile of rocks.
This is what we get for using GDP as a synonym for valuable production. Not all production has value, or even is production.
Do we collect actual data anymore, or does the administration just crap out a number? Probably the second so we can have news stories like this one.