I’m honestly trying to understand something, because this feels like a broken record.
Every few years — sometimes every few months — I hear the same thing: “Don’t buy right now. The market is about to crash. Wait it out.”
But meanwhile… everything keeps getting more expensive. Homes, rent, materials, insurance, taxes — none of it is going down in any meaningful way.
So at what point does “wait for the crash” just become permanent advice that only benefits people who already have capital?
It genuinely feels like a soft scam sometimes. Regular people are told to sit on the sidelines “until the timing is right,” while investors and wealthy buyers can afford to swoop in, buy during any dip, and hold long-term. When there are fewer buyers competing, the people with cash and leverage win — every time.
I get that markets fluctuate. I get interest rates matter. I get overextending yourself is dangerous. But if prices trend upward over decades, wages don’t keep up, and rent keeps rising… when exactly is the responsible time to buy supposed to be?
I’m not trying to time the market. I’m trying to live somewhere long-term and stop throwing money into rent forever.
So I’m curious:
• Are regular people actually better off waiting, or is that advice outdated?
• Is buying when you can afford it the only timing that really matters?
• How do first-time buyers compete when institutional buyers don’t play by the same rules?
Would love to hear from people who bought recently, waited and regretted it, or waited and it actually worked out.
Is “don’t buy right now” just permanent advice at this point?
byu/___Kaido___ inRealEstate
Posted by ___Kaido___
33 Comments
you’re getting the worst advice ever no offense – homeownerships always been the same, literally only buy if you can afford it. Guess how much your home would be if you bought before the 2008 crash? You would have made a ton of money on it. The market goes up
Are there lots of homes you like in your price range right now? And you have prequalified for a loan you feel good about? If yes, probably a good time for you.
Lol it’s permanent terrible advice. Better advice is “the best time to buy is always in the past”
No one can make the call in your situation but you. I sold a highly volatile asset to buy a house and the asset dropped 60% by the time the deal finished. Best investment of my life.
There are so many factors in buying that any general advice is probably not good advice (or should be handled with a grain of salt.)
One thing about real estate is this. It’s ALWAYS a good time to buy and almost never a “perfect” time to sell. If you overthink it, you’ll talk yourself out of good deals and into bad timing. The real move isn’t predicting the market, it’s stress-testing the deal and staying inside your buying box. If it works when things go wrong, it usually works when things go right too. Best asset in the world!
If you had only not listened a few years ago you’d have a house now.
Buy if you have at least a 10% down payment, plan to live in one place for at least 7 years and the monthly mortgage payment is not more than 30% of your monthly salary. Don’t try to time the market. Even experts cannot predict when to buy or sell.
If you are planning to stay in the town you currently live in, have stable employment and relationships and buying to keep the home for life or at least 10 years or more then anytime is the right time to buy or build.
Find the home you like and will be satisfied with and go in for the long haul. Of course buying during a dip is better.
If you are buying to flip a home, make $$ shortterm, buying as an investment, plan to change/move to other cities or states, your job is unstable or transitional and can move, or your military than you could end up buying high and selling low. Real estate like all other investments and commodities has spikes and cliffs. You are better off investing your money in a market index fund.
No one knows what the market will do.
We had extremely unprecedented bubble during the last few years and the market in most places is now stabilizing or dropping. If could stay flat for a few years , turn around and start spiking again or it could keep dropping another 10 or 20%. And that may weed out some investors and flippers while also encouraging more investors into the market.
But if you are buying long-term, none of that matters.
I bought in December 2022. The market was really high but I needed a house and a stable cost living situation. So, I bought what I could afford at the time.
I had people telling me what a shame my 5.0% interest rate was and how sorry they were that I bought “right before” the market correction.
I tried to time my buy, then told myself I am buying a home not making an investment. Figure out your priorities then go with it.
When you are buying a home, your affordability is the only factor that matters. When you are purchasing a property for investment, it makes some sense to look at macros and local RE trends before pulling the trigger.
Who is telling you to wait for a crash? For quite a while now, the conventional wisdom has been to buy if you can afford it.
I think that was good advice a year ago. A lot of markets are showing a bit more life.
Buy now fr…not going down tbh
Who’s telling you to wait? Buy when you can afford to. And now is a great time to buy.
(Not an economist, just a guy trying to make sense of things) Here is a graph of United States national debt. In 2025: [https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEBTN](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEBTN) The intrest payment on national debt was higher than the entire military budget.
Things that will decrease home prices:
– Raise intrest rates (US Government can’t afford that)
– Build more homes in desirable areas (Not holding my breath)
– Recession (The government can’t afford a recession, they will print their way out of it)
– Less People (Highly unlikely)
Things that will continue to raise home prices
– Government keeps printing money (They can’t afford not to)
– Government keeps rates low (They can’t afford not to)
– Stock market keeps flying (Inevitable consequence of the above two)
If you measure home prices in terms of ounces of gold, they are rather low at the moment. Not to be a doomer, but I certainly won’t be selling me house to try and short the housing market any time soon. Commercial real estate on the other hand…
Don’t buy right now is what people who can’t say to save face. Buy what you can afford when you’re ready. That’s it.
And, it’s dumb to buy and then sell in 5-10 years unless you have specific loans for professionals who have to. You throw away a ton on interest. Some can also afford that, but most shouldn’t. Buy for long-term
Real estate is, unfortunately, experiencing that whole “The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent” thing at the current moment. It IS overpriced/overvalued, but there’s not much you can do about it.
Buying it when you can afford it is really the only thing that matters. If you can’t afford it, you can’t buy. Don’t listen to people that says “wait for the market to crash“ because honestly, it’s never ever ever ever ever going to happen like it did in 2008. There will be market corrections, but if you look at the historical averages for real estate, the price goes up. It comes down a little. It goes back up higher. It comes down a little. It goes back up even higher and comes down a little. You’ll be chasing that market forever.
No.
reframe it to, is buying right now the best move for you.
affordability for buying versus renting is depending on market, way veered towards renting. for instance, in seattle or LA, the rent you would pay for a 2 bed could be around 3k, but the out of pocket for buying is 6k. so are the markets going to crash, WHO KNOWS. but the price you pay to buy just isn’t worth it.
And generally, any home owner will always say its the time to buy, and any renter will say things are about to crash. Self interest in people’s POV.
So you decide what’s best for you and do the math. Its not that hard, but don’t listen to people who are looking out for THEIR best interest.
I’ve seen an 8% drop in MD this year
The best time to buy was yesterday. This will always be true.
Sure, a year ago interests rates were higher, but now prices are higher, and had you bought, you could have refinanced either now, or in a bit and maybe get into the low 5s.
Buying a house is not supposed to be meant for an investment, you’re paying for a place to live and call your own.
We bought our first home in Spring 2007. The big crash/recession within our first year of ownership. Fortunately we did a 30 year fixed (ARM’s with balloon payments were oooular and one of the reasons for the crash) and our jobs were recession proof.
We just kept living. Eventually the market recovered and we sold in 2016! with some healthy equity (a the benefit of the HARP refi program to get a lower rate in 2012) and parlayed that into a better home.
Now we own 1.5 mil in real estate. All because we bought when we did.
Most people would be like “ha ha, you bought at the top of the market!” But (as said by another redditor) the toilets still flushed, the doors still shut. We had to live somewhere. And in 2009-2012 during the “recovery” it was also the wealthy people and investors who made out like bandits on cheap home prices. Not regular people.
Buy when it makes sense financially and for your needs. There’s no point timing it bc it could take years for a crash to happen, if it even does
Ew just buy don’t be a renter
I see you’re unfamiliar with the current Austin housing market.
I know quite a few people who were in position to buy prior to 2023 but put it off hoping for a crash and now it’s even more unattainable and they missed out on the historically low rates
The best time to buy is when you’re ready.
I always believe “Time in the market > timing the market”.
Most homes being bought today are forever homes not starter homes, so chances are you’ll be living there for 10+ years.
So if you wait to buy, you’ll be throwing money away in monthly rents. At least with your mortgage, you’re building equity with every mortgage payment made.
> I’m not trying to time the market. I’m trying to live somewhere long-term and stop throwing money into rent forever.
There’s your answer. If you can afford a place, buy it. No one can time the market, but you’re not trying to flip the place, so it doesn’t matter
i was told to wait during the pandemic. home prices haven’t gone down….rates went up though.
Bought when we could afford it at the bottom end of our margin. Golden handcuffed to a <3% rate. Outgrew the house in five years, sold and bought again at much worse market for a buyer.
Thing is, each time we bought we looked at why we wanted a house, what it cost us, when we could recoup that cost, and what we gain from owing vs renting.
We could have waited longer in the first house and been in a better financial position, but we love the new house and the lifestyle it allows us to have. So in that sense, it’s worth it to us.
Why have money if you don’t spend it for your own happiness? Doesn’t have to be a house, anyplace can be a home. If the deal makes sense to you today and fits the lifestyle you want to have then send it. I have never regretted trying my best with the information I had at the time.
Don’t wait to buy real estate. Buy real estate and wait.