For months it has felt like crypto could not catch a break. Bad news hits and we dump. Good news hits and we dump harder. No news at all and we either go sideways or slowly bleed. Rate cuts, ETFs, regulation clarity, wars, peace talks – none of it seemed to matter in a positive way.
Then suddenly the US flies into Venezuela, captures Maduro, drags him off the global stage and instead of markets panicking, crypto starts moving up. Bitcoin pushes higher, ETH follows, even the broader market looks alive again. Stocks wobble, gold barely reacts and crypto suddenly starts grinding up.
Honestly, I do not even know how to interpret this anymore. We have had months of objectively bullish news that went nowhere and now we get borderline insane geopolitical headlines and this is what makes the market move? I am not even trying to spin a narrative here – it’s just that the reaction doesn’t match the event at all.
Yesterday I am reading about Maduro getting hauled off by the US, thinking "great, another reason for markets to freak out". Then today I open my Nехо app and my portfolio is just up. Not because I did anything – no trades, rotations or anything of the sorts. Even the daily interest payout was noticeably higher than yesterday – like 10% more!
That is what messes with my head. When everything was calm or supposedly bullish, nothing happened. Now things look more chaotic than ever and crypto decides this is the moment to wake up. Meanwhile institutions have been quietly stacking BTC and ETH this whole time, regardless of headlines, while price felt weirdly suppressed.
So I am genuinely confused now – am I overthinking this or are prices actually suppressed despite massive institutional buying and we are only now seeing cracks in that? Because the timing of this move makes absolutely no sense to me anymore.
US grabs Maduro, markets shrug, crypto pumps – what are we actually watching here?
byu/Kurosaki56843 inCryptoCurrency
Posted by Kurosaki56843
18 Comments
It’s either invest or be inflated to zero. Thats what’s going on.
I would call it The Art of War.
You’re seeing crypto make a slight temporary correction after an extremely large fall after people realized Trump’s meme coins and overall idiocy killed altseason this cycle
This slight pump is nothing special.
Don’t conflate the beginning of a year and the end of tax harvest season; resulting in the martlet “reawakening”
With current events.
2 different factors playing a role here
Pay attention to Global threats.
Russia is in a war and Europe is in Danger.
Iran was suppling weapons to Russia.
Now Iran is falling apart so Russia can’t count on them anymore.
China was getting ready to Invade Taiwan.
Venezuela was feeding Russia and China cheap Oil.
In one week, the two major suppliers to the Russia war effort and China’s Invasion plans just got Rug pulled.
Now that Iran is undergoing regime change and cheap Oil is cut off, the war plans for both Russia and China can’t happen.
Does anyone know why Japan Attack Pearl Harbour in WWII?
The USA cut off Japan’s oil in the Philippines. They couldn’t continue the war without Oil. So they (Japan) tried to take out the Pacific Fleet based in Pearl Harbour and Invaded the Philippines, to get the Oil.
War machines need Fuel and the USA just cut off both Russia and China from cheap Oil and Weapons…
I’m pretty sure what happened in Iran was helped along by outside Countries.
Both fell at the same time. It didn’t just happen.
The stock market has long since decoupled from Main Street economy. A large reason is that stock valuation is tied singularly to profit, and the more these companies (majority held by wealthy billionaires) are able to extract from the collective wealth of society, well the more valuable they are. But that means the rest of society being extracted from feels little of that capital appreciation.
Dont be mistaken i love myself some capitalism, but this is no closer to capitalism as Vespa engine inside a lambo shell is a true lambo. When the system relies on the ‘capital’ being stolen in a myriad ways it stops being capitalism and is in essence mass theft.
Maybe then it’s not the bitcoin that it’s pumping, dollar is crashing.
The Venezuela stuff is unrelated to Bitcoin and by extension crypto. It’s simply a coincidence it pumped when it did, it was simply a relief rally after a brutal sell off. Don’t think too much about the news when dealing with crypto – it’s all about the business cycle and liquidity.
Unpopular opinion – this is pure animal spirits, as with most crypto market moves. You can’t logic your way through a market that didn’t logic itself into this price change.
We are adopting the “i don’t care about foreign wars in 3rd world countries, as long as it doesn’t affect my pocket” attitude.
Crypto loves war, instability, and chaos. That’s how shitty crypto is.
My take: crypto is closely tied to the current US administration and them losing midterms would make it much harder to pass crypto friendly policies, and recent events like the Minnesota daycare fraud and the Venezuelan president abduction could boost their chances in the upcoming elections.
Stop looking at news headlines and start looking at real rates and cross border flows.
What move?
Oil didn’t shrug
New year but same market manipulation from last year. It’s gonna tank soon again
You’re right to be confused, and it is weird. I’ve been watching the market too, and the main reason for bitcoin pumping is the increase in liquidity by the Fed, after stopping quantitative tightening and injecting billions thru repo operations. Look it up.
Wars are bad, but they are good for finance. It’s sad, but it’s true. All of these military operations (not just in the US, but so many countries) need money. Most govts are in debt. Where does the money come from? More printing. Which is good for bitcoin, gold and any other scarce asset.
Also, the long term HODLers have stopped selling (as per on chain metrics) and the Deribit options which suppressed the price have expired in December. It’s too early to say anything, but things may look good in 2026 (at least for bitcoin and ETH).
You should use independent sources to verify everything I’ve said.
It’s because more people want to buy than sell. Stop acting like it’s all because of some irrelevant geopolitical event. There’s huge randomness in this system, don’t look for patterns in noise. Bitcoin goes up over the years, and that’s the only thing you should care about. Anything more and you’re just deluding yourself that you understand something.