If the court rules that tariffs are illegal, I'm sure the market will go up. But I'm worried about what happens after the initial pump.
The president said that if the court goes against him he would crash the market "1929 style." What could he do to destroy the market if tariffs are taken away?
Posted by cannythecat
11 Comments
[removed]
Does it matter? This market doesnt really care about anything, nukes could be going off and it’ll keep skyrocketing. Don’t overthink it.
Tariffs have been part of the US economy for over 235 years (see Tariff Act of 1789).
EDIT: If you’re gonna downvote me, then at least prove me wrong.
They will find other grounds for keeping the tariffs, they have already said this.
On one hand, the market would like to see the tariffs go away. On the other hand, a Supreme Court ruling that strikes them down will produce uncertainty in the market, which is something the market does not like.
Why would the market go up if it’s ruled illegal? The market hates uncertainty if anything it will spike the VIX causing the market to collapse
These tariffs were implemented basis a very dumb reading of a specific law. There are two other laws that give the president power to tariff; he willl immediately announce similar tariffs basis different legal footing once he loses this. Then he’ll lose in court again. Then he’ll do it a third time. and then he’ll be out of office before teh courts hear it.
his new tariff announcements will be instantly challenged in courts, lose, and be stayed. The question is weather or not the Stay will…stay…this time around.
Unwinding this first round is going to be a fucking nightmare. Trade courts new that which is why it as part of their stay argument. Maybe after the shitshow, the courts will realize how insane it was to allow this to go into place when there was any chance it could be pulled back.
Source: import for a living.
After just reading 1929, the crash came in three tranches, and mostly in 1930 to 1932. 1929 wiped out the speculators. But it wasn’t even in the end of year big events at the start of 1930. 1930 was when smoot Harley tariffs passed. Market dropped and stayed down in June 20-40%. The tariffs start. Next was England left the gold standard. Market dropped another chunk. In 1932 continued bank failures led to continuous loss until Roosevelt had to shut the banks down on his first inaugurated day.
Markets may crash but ‘like 1929’ has little to no relation to history
Upholding Trump’s clearly illegal tariffs would erode trust in your democratic institutions. It gives one man total control of the US economy. Next stop would be Greenland.
Tariffs coming off is baseline assumption. Tariffs going right back on under different article is also baseline assumption. Markets will only move if one of those things *doesn’t* happen.
If you’re worried, buy puts on your own portfolio after the pump