Holding removes a lot of decision-making. Fewer trades, fewer chances to make mistakes, and fewer moments where you start doubting Bitcoin itself. That’s why buy-and-hold often feels less risky over long timeframes.
At the same time, futures exist for a reason. I came across a discussion on Bitunix where some people argued futures aren’t really about beating buy-and-hold, but about shaping exposure and managing risk over time. That made me wonder whether either approach actually has a higher probability of working over years rather than months or cycles.
Curious how others here see it?
Over the long run, does simply holding Bitcoin outperform trading it?
byu/0xDaisypto inBitcoin
Posted by 0xDaisypto
17 Comments
If u trade good then you’ll outperform btc, if u trade bad, than u won’t
“The tax you’ll pay on the capital gain depends on how long you held the asset before selling it… …Long-term capital gains are derived from assets that are held for more than one year before they are disposed of… …The tax rate on most taxpayers who report long-term capital gains is 15% or lower. Short-term capital gains are taxed just like your ordinary income. That’s up to 37%, depending on your tax bracket.”
– Investopedia
Yes!
The best day-traders underperform the market
Time in the market beats timing the markets
I can’t hear you. Say it. Fucking SAY IT
Also noteworthy is that every time you sell and make a profit that is a taxable event that must be factored into the scenario.
Similar to 90sPokémon cards original best to traid or hold
Not at all why would you hold now when the bottom is clearly coming in October 2026? I love BTC but that just seems silly given the projected 18k bottom. 4 year cycle deniers are downvoting me. But if you sell now and buy back in in October you can 5x your BTC holdings.
In terms of stress, worry, regret and tax complications – yes.
Yes.
If I was gonna gamble in a market it wouldn’t be Bitcoin. BTC is the most holdable asset ever.
⭕ Maybe so, maybe not ⭕
The short answer: Yes. For 99% of the plebs out there, HODLing Bitcoin like a sovereign king absolutely mops the floor with active trading.
Unless you are the chosen one, I guess it could be you.
Yes.
For most people, holding wins just because it removes so many ways to mess things up. Trading sounds rational on paper, but in practice it adds timing pressure, fees, and a lot of second guessing. Futures can make sense if you are very disciplined and using them to hedge or adjust exposure, not to constantly outsmart the market. Over years, the edge usually comes from staying in the game and not overreacting. I have seen more people hurt themselves by trading too much than by holding through boredom and volatility. The boring path tends to be the one people actually stick with.
Yes, 97% traders are worse off. Worse than casino.
For most people yes, the average person is far more emotional, into beliefs and feelings, you hardly ever see talks about statistics which is the only way you can reasonably trade this asset
Yes, with 2 potential exceptions:
1) A person with insider knowledge. There have been suspicious longs/shorts and buy/sell transactions just before someone in the government makes a huge announcement that shakes the market. It had been hypothesized that some people with insider knowledge of info that will shake the markets have been doing trading and making tens of millions of dollars (This is not Financial or legal advice… Such a person could very well find themselves with felonies over this even though they get rich)
2) A Whale or centi-millionaire who can look at the longs/shorts futures gamblers calls and place their own opposite call then either dump excessive Bitcoin to saturate the market and cause a cascade of liquidating the longs and making millions off their short call, or flooding somewhere with liquidity to cause a supply bottleneck with high demand, thus liquidating all the sorts and making millions on their leveraged long. Some liquidation games can be an SEC violation when done in the US, but Bitcoin is a global asset and some of the platforms allow even the US illegal games which then cause a liquidation cascade and affect US traders.
If you don’t have the power to force the outcome you want, trading is risky. You’re just a small data point pawn for the games the whales and big pockets are playing with all the people who think they have some pattern figured out.
Holding long term is the safest bet. Public Bitcoin treasury companies alone are sucking up more than the total amount of new Bitcoin being mined. That means that as soon as OTC desks and exchange reserves are depleted, a huge supply and demand is coming in the long term no matter what games the whales and big pockets play with futures. If you play trading games with sharks who can affect the volatility direction within a certain percentage, you’re going to be the prey. They aren’t changing the long term direction, but they can screw over your short term trading.
But to each their own.
There are strategies that you could backtest which outperform buy-and-hold, though this is based on historical figures. For most, it is best to just buy and put into cold storage, increase your contribution when we are below certain moving averages, take out a loan when we are at very low points. Whatever works for you to reach the goal of getting as much BTC as possible.