The idea that Bitcoin strictly follows a 4-year cycle is being questioned more often. If cycles extend or flatten, market behavior — and expectations — may change significantly.
How much weight do you still give to the classic cycle theory?
Bitcoin cycles: repeating history or structural shift?
byu/Mission-Stomach-3751 inCryptoMarkets
Posted by Mission-Stomach-3751
9 Comments
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Oh look another of these posts. Nobody knows. My personal opinion is that widespread belief in a calendar mandated crash, plus widespread capitulation/tax loss harvesting at end of last year was an easy counter trade. Very little in the macro backdrop right now resembles former crypto winters.
But every time I’ve tried to suggest that the cycle will need to break eventually, i get yelled at or downvoted to hell. People don’t want to hear it while the market action is terrible and seemingly validating the (IMO irrational) belief that a previously observed pattern must always continue. Now that the market is picking up, people seem more receptive to the idea.
Might be over. Might not be. It did drop during the exact window of time it was expected to, but currently showing more resilience than previous cycles. Could be a smoothing out due to much more liquidity, could be a minor change in cycles, who knows? Maybe maybe maybe.
Zero weight. The idea has been criticized since inception because it’s not real.
Bitcoin halvenings do reduce supply which can lead to greater price but only if demand continues to increase as well. In reality we see an overall upward move but the market dictates price not BTC token mechanics.
What happened historically was driven by hype and FOMO as a self-fulfilling prophecy not an actual market principle. BTC isn’t special and assuming it follows its own set of laws which fundamentally differ from every other asset is foolishness.
I expect as more and more Bitcoin is mined, the cycles will matter less and less.
We’re down to what, 4% of Bitcoin remaining?
Btc price is where its placed. History may or may not correlate with where the hand places it next.
Halving still matters, but macro + liquidity now dominate.
the only reason btc will go up or down is due to people buying or selling more
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