“The NFAP analysis notes the drop in the size of the immigrant labor force represents a shock for the U.S. economy but is even larger when compared to the expected level. In their assumptions, the Congressional Budget Office and the Social Security Administration expected approximately 1.3 million more foreign-born workers in 2025, which would create a gap of more than 2 million expected workers once 810,000 fewer foreign-born workers in the latest BLS data are added.”
“According to Stephen Miller and other Trump officials, deporting foreign-born workers and restricting legal immigration would benefit U.S. workers. “In one meeting during the 2024 campaign, Mr. Trump said that if it was up to Mr. Miller there would be only 100 million people in this country, and they would all look like Mr. Miller, according to a person with knowledge of the comment,” reported [*The New York Times*](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/16/us/politics/stephen-miller-trump.html).”
“Miller’s theory, based largely on what economists call the “lump of labor fallacy” or the belief that an economy holds only a fixed number of jobs, has hit head-on with reality. Reducing the labor supply has not benefited U.S. workers.”
“There is no evidence that U.S.-born workers have benefited from the decline in foreign-born workers,” according to the NFAP analysis. “The unemployment rate for U.S.-born workers was 4.1% in December 2025 compared to 3.7% in December 2024.” That represents an 11% increase over a 12-month period. NFAP notes the 12-month comparison is the most valid because BLS does not seasonally adjust its estimates by nativity. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for all workers in the economy rose from 4.0% in January 2025 to 4.4% in December 2025.”
“The unemployment and labor force participation rates show fewer of the U.S.-born being able to find jobs and fewer even bothering to look,” said labor economist Mark Regets, an NFAP senior fellow, in an interview.”
Regets is correct that government data show U.S. workers have not reentered the labor market in response to the withdrawal of foreign-born workers, even though immigration critics argued that would happen. NFAP notes the [labor force participation rate](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNU01373413) for the U.S.-born aged 16 and older fell from 61.4% in December 2024 to 61.2% in December 2025, while the seasonally adjusted labor force participation rate for all individuals aged 16 or older dropped during the same period.”
“Economists, backed by decades of data, note that it is incorrect to assume fewer immigrants are necessary to create more opportunity for U.S. workers or that increasing immigration or growing the labor supply in other ways will mean fewer jobs for Americans. “The amount of economic activity in the United States is not fixed,” said Mark Regets. “Otherwise, when soldiers came back from World War II, we would have had mass unemployment rather than an economic expansion.”
Disastrous_Park_4532 on
As United States citizens, we are unlikely to accept employment at that wage rate. However, the corporation refuses to offer higher compensation. The corporation will either increase wages or benefit from additional tax reductions. If no action is taken, the population may experience economic hardship, leading to a potential economic downturn or workers accepting jobs paying fifteen dollars per hour. It remains to be seen which outcome will occur first.
ChunkyLover500 on
Having worked in agriculture, I know firsthand how difficult it is to find reliable workers. Temporary foreign workers and immigrants are the only ones who are willing and are reliable. Most are grateful for the opportunity to work.
The people picking fruit and doing landscaping are not the root of the economic problems in America. Not even close.
thegooddoktorjones on
I think we can all agree that there must be economic sacrifices made if we are gonna get to enjoy all this open racism again.
Here’s some more worthless words.
Here’s some more worthless words.
Here’s some more worthless words.
drobits on
It’s almost like the richest people on earth who will never be satisfied with their wealth are creating fake culture wars so the general mass don’t figure out they’re the ones actively stealing everything from beneath their fingertips while simultaneously destroying the planet
Governmentwatchlist on
It is not hard to see why. The meat packing plant in my town got raided, but instead of replacing those workers the entire plant shut down a couple months later. Anyone who thought you could just take out the illegals and replace them with citizens and the economy improves has never studied economics or basic logic.
AgileDrag1469 on
The economic circumstances of the people that claim to support “freedom” and “Christianity” yet really support fascism and white nationalism will continue to deteriorate and quite frankly I’m going to enjoy every bit of their economic and spiritual collapse. It’s only a matter of time before their economic bottom hits the floor. They will have no one left to blame but themselves when they realize a bunch of billionaire con men screwed them over. I have absolutely no empathy left. The demise will be slow and they will feel every second of decay.
7 Comments
“Government data show the Trump administration’s [immigration](https://www.forbes.com/sites/stuartanderson/2026/01/06/the-outlook-on-h-1b-visas-and-immigration-in-2026/) policies reducing the number of foreign-born workers did not help U.S.-born workers in 2025. The latest data indicate a substantial drop in foreign-born workers did not translate into better labor market outcomes for U.S.-born workers or encourage more workers to enter the labor force. The U.S.-born unemployment rate increased over the past 12 months. Trump officials, including White House Deputy Chief of Staff [Stephen Miller](https://www.forbes.com/sites/stuartanderson/2025/12/08/new-trump-miller-strategy-clashes-on-immigration-and-innovation/), predicted fewer immigrant workers would produce significant benefits for U.S.-born workers.”
“The latest jobs report confirms what other monthly reports showed in 2025: Fewer foreign-born workers are in the U.S. labor force due to the Trump administration’s policies on legal and illegal immigration. “The Bureau of Labor Statistics [household survey](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNU01073395) shows a decline of 881,000 foreign-born workers since the start of the Trump administration in January 2025, and a drop of 1.3 million since a peak in March 2025,” according to a National Foundation for American Policy [analysis](https://nfap.com/research/new-nfap-policy-brief-u-s-labor-force-analysis-the-decline-in-the-foreign-born-labor-force-since-january-2025/).”
“The NFAP analysis notes the drop in the size of the immigrant labor force represents a shock for the U.S. economy but is even larger when compared to the expected level. In their assumptions, the Congressional Budget Office and the Social Security Administration expected approximately 1.3 million more foreign-born workers in 2025, which would create a gap of more than 2 million expected workers once 810,000 fewer foreign-born workers in the latest BLS data are added.”
“According to Stephen Miller and other Trump officials, deporting foreign-born workers and restricting legal immigration would benefit U.S. workers. “In one meeting during the 2024 campaign, Mr. Trump said that if it was up to Mr. Miller there would be only 100 million people in this country, and they would all look like Mr. Miller, according to a person with knowledge of the comment,” reported [*The New York Times*](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/16/us/politics/stephen-miller-trump.html).”
“Miller’s theory, based largely on what economists call the “lump of labor fallacy” or the belief that an economy holds only a fixed number of jobs, has hit head-on with reality. Reducing the labor supply has not benefited U.S. workers.”
“There is no evidence that U.S.-born workers have benefited from the decline in foreign-born workers,” according to the NFAP analysis. “The unemployment rate for U.S.-born workers was 4.1% in December 2025 compared to 3.7% in December 2024.” That represents an 11% increase over a 12-month period. NFAP notes the 12-month comparison is the most valid because BLS does not seasonally adjust its estimates by nativity. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for all workers in the economy rose from 4.0% in January 2025 to 4.4% in December 2025.”
“The unemployment and labor force participation rates show fewer of the U.S.-born being able to find jobs and fewer even bothering to look,” said labor economist Mark Regets, an NFAP senior fellow, in an interview.”
Regets is correct that government data show U.S. workers have not reentered the labor market in response to the withdrawal of foreign-born workers, even though immigration critics argued that would happen. NFAP notes the [labor force participation rate](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNU01373413) for the U.S.-born aged 16 and older fell from 61.4% in December 2024 to 61.2% in December 2025, while the seasonally adjusted labor force participation rate for all individuals aged 16 or older dropped during the same period.”
“Economists, backed by decades of data, note that it is incorrect to assume fewer immigrants are necessary to create more opportunity for U.S. workers or that increasing immigration or growing the labor supply in other ways will mean fewer jobs for Americans. “The amount of economic activity in the United States is not fixed,” said Mark Regets. “Otherwise, when soldiers came back from World War II, we would have had mass unemployment rather than an economic expansion.”
As United States citizens, we are unlikely to accept employment at that wage rate. However, the corporation refuses to offer higher compensation. The corporation will either increase wages or benefit from additional tax reductions. If no action is taken, the population may experience economic hardship, leading to a potential economic downturn or workers accepting jobs paying fifteen dollars per hour. It remains to be seen which outcome will occur first.
Having worked in agriculture, I know firsthand how difficult it is to find reliable workers. Temporary foreign workers and immigrants are the only ones who are willing and are reliable. Most are grateful for the opportunity to work.
The people picking fruit and doing landscaping are not the root of the economic problems in America. Not even close.
I think we can all agree that there must be economic sacrifices made if we are gonna get to enjoy all this open racism again.
Here’s some more worthless words.
Here’s some more worthless words.
Here’s some more worthless words.
It’s almost like the richest people on earth who will never be satisfied with their wealth are creating fake culture wars so the general mass don’t figure out they’re the ones actively stealing everything from beneath their fingertips while simultaneously destroying the planet
It is not hard to see why. The meat packing plant in my town got raided, but instead of replacing those workers the entire plant shut down a couple months later. Anyone who thought you could just take out the illegals and replace them with citizens and the economy improves has never studied economics or basic logic.
The economic circumstances of the people that claim to support “freedom” and “Christianity” yet really support fascism and white nationalism will continue to deteriorate and quite frankly I’m going to enjoy every bit of their economic and spiritual collapse. It’s only a matter of time before their economic bottom hits the floor. They will have no one left to blame but themselves when they realize a bunch of billionaire con men screwed them over. I have absolutely no empathy left. The demise will be slow and they will feel every second of decay.