As of December 2025. Not sure how to post a link, but there is an article on Washington Post where I saw this info.
interesting. I have 2.875% and I'm holding on for another 24 years until its paid off lol
Mortgages with rates at 6% or higher now outnumber those with rates 3% or lower.
byu/BarnacleDowntown8952 inRealEstate
Posted by BarnacleDowntown8952
12 Comments
not too surprising. People get married, divorced, change jobs, have kids, pass away, etc. Many of these life milestones require buying, selling, moving, or refinancing. Rates were under 3% in 2020, and were over 6% in 2022. I don’t like to remind myself that I’m getting older, but Covid started more than 5 years ago.
On the bright side, this should reduce the number of people with a sunk cost fallacy mentality or over-fixation on rate.
I haven’t bought yet so I know I’ll never get a rate below 3%, I’d be really happy at 6% tbh
Makes sense. There are a finite number of 3.5 and lower loans. And it isn’t a rate we are likely to see again.
So as each of those sells that is one less and over time these will clear out of the system.
I hope Trump takes over the Fed and rips the Fed rate up to 8%. All you 3% guys can keep paying your underwater mortgage for 50 years for all I care
The way they are characterizing this is typical BS clickbait.
Sub 3% mortgages are only 20%, OK. But 3 to 4%, and 4 to 5% loans are 40%. So if you add those all together, that’s 69% of homes still have a rate lower than you can get today. With another 10% in the 5s (which maybe is not a huge leap to sell and buy). Most of those people are not moving unless circumstances in their lives change drastically, like a divorce, great new job requiring relocation, or downsizing to retire to a cheaper area.
And even this article says 40% of homes have no mortgage. Most of those people are not selling, just to take out a mortgage although some might make lateral moves to change locations.
There’s no “key milestone” of anything going on here, except to illustrate that old saw, “There’s lies, damn lies, and statistics.” Sad that even the WP is not above that kind of clickbait.
This is useless. Google AI says 51% to 54% of all mortgages are below 4%. If you did a refi at 3 1/2%, you’re unlikely to do it again for 2 1/2%.
A 30 year fixed rate mortgage below 4% is unlikely again unless they do massive quantitative easing. The Fed already holds more than 20% of mortgage backed securities. $9 trillion. The $200 billion Trump is talking about is like throwing a pebble in the ocean.
I’ve got a 2.99% rental condo I’m holding forever if possible. My 6.9% house is getting refinanced currently to 5.9%.
Golden handcuffs
I am in the under 3%. I will never see a rate this low in my lifetime.
As the percentage grows liquidity in the market will increase. Plenty of people have been forced out of their golden handcuffs.
People on Reddit will do almost anything to post about their <3% rate.
Assuming you’re talking about this article: https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2026/01/11/mortgage-lock-in-effect/
Then you can browse a paywall free version here: https://archive.ph/vnroL
It’s helpful to include at least the WaPo link in the future, since then others can find an archived version of it.