The prediction market, polymarket, is currently giving an 11% chance on the US invading Greenland by the end of 2026. Literally on the US invading an ally? An attack like that would absolutely rock the US stock market and drain all remaining foreign trust in the country. What are your thoughts on this and do you think he would actually do such thing? The past year has been a rocky ride but overall the US stock market has still performed surprisingly well. Im very close to selling all my sp500 holdings and focusing on the rest of the world for the next 3 years.
Posted by UnhappyBasket547
25 Comments
So far, the market has been this news in stride. Not really sure why, because yes, it’s horrible news.
US in not actually going to invade greenland thats trump playing a maximalist card so he can pretend to “compromise” by getting some other deal.
Basically get inside trumps head, he’s a real estate guy, he wants to make america BIG as in MORE LAND, MANIFEST DESTINY etc etc.
All the moves this year are in pursuit of this.
IMO the most likely thing it happen is actually a annexation of Cuba because logistically and geopolitically its such a easy target right now.
There might be a strong belief, possibly severely misguided, that Trump would not be allowed to carry out military intervention in Greenland
Selling stock wouldn’t help much when the value of the dollar tanks overnight.
Nah, 11% on Polymarket is just degeneracy bait;
Trump talks big on Greenland for headlines, but invading a NATO ally? That’s Pearl Harbor 2.0, nuking USD hegemony and crashing S&P 50% overnight.
Markets pricing in 0% reality here; it’s pure theta bleed for retail suckers.
Trump’s chaos is already baked into VIX spikes—S&P’s up 25% YTD cuz AI/tech >> geopolitics noise. Hold core.
Layer in 10-15% gold/CHF hedges now (GLD or FXF) for any Denmark drama. Exits are for panic, not pros.Stay stacked.
Market does not care about geopolitical news anymore. The only global news that will rock the market is China invading Taiwan. Otherwise nothing will keep this market down.
I am long past the point of thinking he isn’t stupid enough to try that.
I highly doubt he’ll ever invade Greenland or Canada. 11 percent seems too generous. Constantly talking about wanting to buy them and maybe some political movement grows in Greenland that supports US annexation? More probable.
Your first problem is looking at prediction markets.
Doesn’t polymarket also have a 2% chance that Jesus will return by 2028?
market doesn’t and never will price in very improbable but catastrophic possibilities
So if it is 11% yes
you are saying there’s an 89% chance that shit is not going to happen – why are you fussing over something so unlikely?
Not going to happen – all noise – just ignore it
Would be interesting to see trump annex greenland for 6 months and then after the midterms congress gives it back
Nothing is going to happen. It’s just a lot of talking and banging on his chest. Demonstrating power. The USA will never invade or start a military conflict with Europe or NATO for that matter. Why is everyone so scared?
First, it will be Greenland, then it will be Canada, and then Mexico. This is the orange Fuhrer’s plan. He will just keep going until he is stopped.
America and the rest of the world are going to be in for a World War II style reckoning unless the Republicans in Congress grow spine before it’s too late.
I unirionically believe it should be illegal for prediction market accounts to pass themselves off as breaking news.
We would never invade Greenland. The real question is if/when it becomes US territory and what *that* means for the markets.
Nothing seems to play a role in pulling the markets back. Don’t think a war with NATO would do anything significant to the indexes.
Not to mention trump would be violating a treaty if he invades Greenland. Very bad for the US.
You’ll know it 2 hours before the invasion.
When the inside traders will put money in polymarket.
I think it is a horrifically bad idea. It would shatter NATO and isolate the US completely. I used to think not even Donald Trump would do something like this but now I really don’t know as it benefits Putin immensely and it seems like anything that benefits Putin we seem to do these days.
are you really believing in what a bunch of randoms think about foreign policy?
I’ve been focusing on European and Asian stocks for over a year now.
Concerned about the potential tariffs coming down the pipeline, though.
“Literally on the US invading an ally?”
Looks like its going to happen. If Europe want to fearmonger about Russia, then theyre going to have to give Greenland to the US. Right? Because we they can’t really defend it. And the US doesnt have to support Ukraine or whatever.