Looking at the actual revenue split of the biggest US companies, such as the Mag 7. You can argue that they aren't really American companies anymore. They are global utilities that just happen to pay taxes in California.
– Meta: ~64% revenue from outside US
– Apple: ~64% revenue from outside US
– Google: ~56% revenue from outside US
The only reason the rest of the world let these companies dominate their economies for 20 years is because the US was seen as the "stable, boring adult" in the room. We had high trust.
That trust is evaporating. When the US political system looks erratic, foreign governments stop seeing Microsoft or Google as neutral tools. They start seeing them as liability risks from a volatile superpower.
The counter-argument is these products are sticky and hard to change. That's true, Corporate IT switching costs are brutal. This isn't going to be a cliff where revenue drops 20% overnight.
But change happens on the margins. It's not about losing the current customer. it's about losing the next one.
– It's the German government choosing a local provider for their next 10-year cloud contract instead of Microsoft.
– It's France passing laws that force data to stay in-country, destroying margins.
– It's the Global South adopting Chinese stacks because they don't want to be reliant on US policy whims.
This won't be a crash. It will be a slow, painful drag on growth for the next decade.
So why has the market been doing well? I think the market was betting heavily that this political chaos is just "temporary noise" once Trump is gone everything snaps back to 2015 normalcy, and not pricing in enough of the reverse (for which there is plenty of catalyst such as seemingly never ending political polarization).
My argument isn't that we crash tomorrow. It's that we are permanently damaging the infrastructure of trust that allows US tech to print money globally. Trust is hard to build and easy to lose. The market is pricing in "volatility" (which passes). It isn't pricing in "erosion" (which is long-term).
A bear case for Mag7: US is burning its "Trust Capital"
byu/TraditionalMango58 instocks
Posted by TraditionalMango58
24 Comments
Maybe I’m delusional, but I still think the US will turn on Trump the second the bottom line is threatened.
The fact of the matter is, companies have done well every year under Trump barring the Covid distortions. Republicans and corporate America have tolerated more and more insane rhetoric and policy threats but they have **yet** to feel it in their earnings/campaign donations.
If that starts to change Trump will be reigned in real fast. I mean look at the bipartisan solidarity against him when Powell was threatened.
The localization of vendors and data centers in EU has already started, the recent tariffs are going to accelerate that trend. Someone should wake-up someone to understand US capitalism is based on consumption and tariffs are going to hurt US more in the short and long term.
Man… you don’t need to be an elder or a veteran in investing to remember how 9 months ago THIS SAME NARRATIVE, was everywhere, and then market soared A LOT. And some of the Mag7 stocks did more than well.
Yep. Right now its about looking into the cost of repatriation and development of plans if not already in place. Some institutions already have repat plans, many companies, some government probably do not. I would imagine most EU government and all financial institutions are now dusting off whatever they have to get a fresh cost, and while they wait for something to actually happen. Given the tariffs are US self harm thats not really something happening yet. But boots in Greenland, or dead EU soldiers or citizens would move this to from a someday thing to a right fucking now thing, and with well motivated disgusted staff working on it. And you are right – it will take time to detatch from the US mag7. But momentum will create big enough euro companies with better capabilites and then the mag7 are looking a bit more irreversibly fucked.
This is obviously just a personal opinion, of course, but I believe MAG7 are on the cusp of becoming even more powerful and profitable with AI products on the horizon. I know that reddit in general seems to think these AI products will be useless or will fail, but I tend to think otherwise.
Just look at the 10 year when it goes above 4.5
Calls it is
This will be a slow turn, meaning next generation will be affected. Most countries will now consider non dependency as a must,
If the ACI is activated the Mag7 will be targeted.
While the market retraces, and if it retraces big, I will continue to deploy as much of my “free” capital as I can because this narrative, and others of “the sky is falling “, have always recovered time and time again over the life of the $SPY.
If I’m wrong on the ?-teenth time that this has happened, then I think I have more to worry about than the stock market. Maybe my 20% Vanguard international will save me in some way.
I dont think most of META products are seen as a US product.
WhatsApp is like used for everything out there. Google is too big to fail
Even in a handsmaid tale scenario, google would just split the US business vs the rest and keep data seperate.
The reql winner is china. I wanted to say russia also but that place is such a shithole, at best they might break even
Other countries can’t ignore AI and there aren’t any European competitors. It’s also too late to start building now given chip supply constraints.
The main concern would be them turning to China but China is a year or so behind and also starving for chips.
At least in the near term, AI stocks seem like safety. Most of their revenue coming from outside of the US is also a benefit given the drop in the $.
This is nonsense. There is no European alternative to most of the MAG7 companies
The bear case for stocks is valuations. They’re some of the highest ever.
Look no further than what happened with Big Oil when Trump attacked Venezuela. The stocks soared.
Turns out conquest can be profitable.
Dumbest thing I’ve seen in a while, bullish!
Claude cowork is also going to be a drag for us software dominance…
Buying the dip. Every market pull back is a gift for a net share buyer.
Regardless of how good the S&P did last year, foreign investment did better. Don’t see any reason to think the same won’t happen this year.
Why would anyone trust a country that might elect Nick Fuentes POTUS in 2032?
They are not American companies. They are publicly traded companies owned by shareholders, not the US. The US doesn’t own the companies; they just have HQ on US soil.
No. Mag 7 minus Tesla are all basically a monopoly or duopoly at worst. They are spending cash on cap ex but the minute the narrative changes, they can stop. The real risk is when you take on debt and can’t pay it back. Not so with the mega tech.
This is my whole operating principle right now.
Everyone thinks the US primacy will last forever. Buffet said “never bet against America”. But this is based on the assumption we act as we had for almost 70 years as a source of stability in policy, treaties, foreign policy etc.
Now that we’re as predictable as a toddler who missed nap time that assumption no longer holds. We are causing long lasting reputational damage and at the same time sabotaging our formerly world class research infrastructure, university system, our relationships with allies, including threatening the most important treaty for stability in the last century.
This is unprecedented, and deeply stupid. When the idiot got elected last Jan I began to position out of USD. I have gone into gold (AAAU 25%) and a mixture of international ETFs and funds (SGOVX, IEUR, SCHF, ILF and EWY 60%) and a small mixture of US and European equities in fields that I largely have some expertise (10-15% and shrinking) – those have still done the worst. EWY went up 100% last year, ILF 50% , SCHF 40%) so this pivot has been great, just wish I’d done it all at once and taken some early losses. Overall 2025 was ~40% with my US equities dragging me down – even though they’ve largely gained only RNA, and CNC have popped enough to be competitive with my intl positions since I bought those at ATLs. Still thinking of shedding them for more non USD positions. Not to gloat but this is working and not gonna stop until the US rights its policy.
I have 4 letters for ya: NBIS
Bloodhound gang say we don’t need no water..