The last opinion day before the winter recess is Tuesday at 10am EST. The next time will not be until February 20. If the court strikes down the tariffs will SPY increase 2 to 4% on a relief rally? Or if upheld decrease 2 to 4% on forever “tariff tweet” uncertainty. Or issue no opinion and just let it sit for another month?
Supreme Court Tariff Tuesday Strike Down?
byu/AdOnly627 inoptions
Posted by AdOnly627
4 Comments
Roberts Jr:”most of us in the SCOTUS love and support you, Mr. President. And Constitution is whatever we say is it is”.
Obviously speculation, but tariffs are not just a favorite negotiating tool of Trump, but also a fundamental part of how he views the economic world, going back to the 80’s. Ruling against them is ruling against him personally (constitution notwithstanding). I have an exceptionally difficult time seeing SCOTUS limiting his power to do that in any meaningful way. Just my two cents.
No, it won’t happen, the news was announced after market Friday, so this was not priced in at all. If its struck down, then market continue to bounce around 6950.
It will open probably 1.5% down, but there is no way for supreme court to act this fast. It will go down probably 3% – 4% before fomc meeting on 28th. Likely no rate cut, and if Fed’s dot plot is only 2 more rate cut, we will likely be down 5% by end of January. If no new bad news, will be up mid Feb, and could be touching 700.
The expected move (EM) of SPX for Tuesday is 38 or 0.5%
The EM of NDX is 190 or 0.75%. This value is normal for the beginning-of-week.