Those under age 50 on Reddit say that houses will definitely be higher in 5-10 years. You do not know that, kids. This is not a given. Data and facts say it can also be flat or down after 5, 10, even 15 years.
Just a PSA. There is no guarantee that a house will be worth more 10 years in the future. That's my only point.
- Chicago 2019 prices were below Chicago 2004 prices. And in many other regions also. Washington, NY, Chicago, Miami, Phoenix.
- Here are more examples of homes being lower after 12-15 years. Many sections of CT, NJ, and NY. The Hartford area HPI was 7.9% lower in the third quarter of 2019 than it was at its pre-crisis peak in 2007.
- Camden, New Jersey HPI dropped by almost 27% from the first quarter of 2007 to the second quarter of 2012. Camden’s HPI was still about 14% lower in Q3 2019 than its pre-crisis peak
- house in a nice Atlanta suburb we paid 469k in 2006 and sold it in 2020 for $450k. Just brutal.
- Sources Links are below
FYI, in some areas, houses were underwater for 15 years or more.
byu/Extreme-Cycle2659 inRealEstate
Posted by Extreme-Cycle2659
20 Comments
Data for Washington, NY, Chicago, Miami, Phoenix.
[https://www.chicagobusiness.com/residential-real-estate/home-prices-peaked-here-2006-were-still-way-behind](https://www.chicagobusiness.com/residential-real-estate/home-prices-peaked-here-2006-were-still-way-behind)
Many sections of CT, NJ, and NY.
[https://smartasset.com/mortgage/housing-market-crisis-recovery-2020](https://smartasset.com/mortgage/housing-market-crisis-recovery-2020)
Damn, those Camden numbers are brutal. Really puts into perspective how much the 2008 crash screwed over certain areas while others bounced back pretty quick
Chicago has also been ran into the ground.
The next Detroit Michigan
Really wondering about the effects on price of future population decline post 2030 and the concurrent turnover of boomer homes; some estimates are 800,000 boomer homes may change ownership per year at the peak.
And now prices are inflated post-2020. This isn’t sustainable either.
In Atlantis, they still are
Why would you compare 2019 prices to 2004 prices though? Compare it to 2007 prices before the collapse.
Your point would still stand, but I think the numbers would be even more drastic
This is some doomer click bait. All of your metrics are pre-boom. All of those prices have been blown out by today’s prices
**The reason OP stopped his data in 2019 is because prices are up 319% in Camden, New Jersey, in the past 10 years.**
This is doomer click bait
**A $400k house in Chicago in 2019 is worth $1m today. Homes in Chicago are up 165% in the past 10 years.**
The reason OP stopped counting in 2019 is because his data is flat wrong now
I purchased a house in 2017 that was 30% less than the price it sold for ten years earlier in 2007
Bought in CT in 2012, it was a slow crawl upwards and then it blew up. Hartford County is one of the hottest markets in the country right now. I bought at such a discount, the economy would have to basically be destroyed for me to lose money on the sale. We’ve been able to stay long term and have reaped the benefits.
When I bought in 2012, the south was booming, but it’s no longer the same bargain. Political situation has dramatically changed. Can’t predict the future, especially in “unprecedented times”. Nobody should buy a house expecting a certain outcome.
With WW3 on the horizon, who knows what will happen
Yeah my area saw a big drop after 2008 and then it wasn’t until the first year of Covid when things broke even for some of those people.
First the federal government needs to create programs to give down payment assistance, then zero down programs to various poor and disadvantaged groups, under the table cash workers, and unemployed people. Then restructure loans when they don’t pay. Then encourage refinancing with interest only loans, and take out a 105% Home Equity Line of Credit to take a vacation and re-do the kitchen to increase the value. Then restructure the loans when they don’t pay. Then encourage refinancing with adjustable rates when rates are lowered. Then restructure them again. Then reduce interest rates again. Then restructure them again. Then temporarily pause payments for those temporarily unable to pay. Then prohibit lenders from foreclosing. After 3 or 4 or 5 years, THEN the houses can be foreclosed, then prices will come down. (Unfortunately, house prices will first increase another 25% or 30% because people with no skin in the game generally don’t concern themselves too much about the price, just monthly payment.)
I stupidly bought a condo in metro Denver in 2024. I don’t plan on it ever returning to its purchase price (real dollars or otherwise).
I think anyone who bought 2022-2024 and needs to sell, they’re gonna be SOL and will need to come to the closing table with cash. Or they may start walking away just like 2008.
The line about “but but, the underwriting was so much better this time” may be partly true. But it doesn’t change macroeconomic and local market fundamentals, nor life circumstances that require an owner to sell. Nor the crazy run up in insurance costs, HOA fees and rent declines that make owning less attractive.
I bought in 06. I couldn’t refi without bringing money to the table til 2020
2008 crash was specifically caused by housing. Every other crash recovered in less than a decade or faster. House prices go up in recessions. The current climate has nothing to do with bad loans and is completely due to Covid printing inflation and money injection / devaluation
I think you’ll have to define underwater more clearly, because this ain’t it.
You’re going to make a lot of people big mad with this post. Home appreciation is basically a religion in the US. Forget how much demand has been pulled forward, demographic changes, or the insane wage appreciation that would need to take place to sustain even higher prices. “Homes only go up”.