What happens to international stocks or ETFs/Mutual Funds if the stock holder’s country goes to war with the asset’s country? I’m not asking if wars cause values to go up or down per se. It’s more about the status of ownership in general. Does it make a difference what broker the assets are held within? Is it generally a unique situation every time?
Examples, all assuming the investor is a US citizen, in the US, with a US brokerage, and the US goes to war with the UK. I just picked those 2 countries since it’s easy to find example assets, not because it’s likely they’d go to war.
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What would happen to shares of BP traded on NYSE, which is a multinational based in the UK?
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What about shares of an international ETF like VXUS, traded on NASDAQ? (According to some reports, 8.51% of VXUS holdings are in the UK.)
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Would bonds be any different? (E.g. VTABX, with 8.33% holdings in the UK.)
What happens to international stocks/funds during a war?
byu/PatrickTheDev ininvesting
Posted by PatrickTheDev
7 Comments
No matter what, you can always safely bet that the rich will come out on top
In 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine, I noticed the 2X Russia ETF RUSL crashed 90% then was delisted.
Look at what happened to the Russian stock market and you’ll find your answers you seek
If the US sanctions those countries (they would do that if they where at war with them), most ETFs holding assets of said country would go to 0 or be delisted like what happened with RSX after Russia indeed Ukraine.
1. If the war in Ukraine is anything to go off, your holdings will get zeroed out. VT and VXUS holders saw their Russian index portion get wiped too. Right when the war broke out, you had folks on reddit admitting they were losing sleep over the fact that they held Russian stocks. Lo and behold, they effectively lost their holdings and had to write it all off. Same with Russian investors with US stocks.
2. See #1. The part that should concern everyone is this is a real possibility and it already happened recently.
3. I’m going to say probably the same.
Ben Felix addressed this very issue [while he was on the Making Money Podcast](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ljBchKkFDAY&feature=youtu.be). The short of it is this is a real risk and it’s also why having a higher than market cap allocation % “home country bias” has benefits we don’t think about such as risk of asset appropriation during conflicts.
Always bet on America (regardless of which idiot is in power)
The correct answer is nobody knows. Usually all trading is halted between warring nations which can cause the value of individual country stocks held by adversaries to drop to zero (happened with Russia a few years ago). Countries can get destroyed and have their markets obliterated to 90% losses (Germany, Japan in WWII). Revolutions can send whole country markets to zero (China, Russia). You can only be broadly diversified and hope for the best, with confiscation in your home country being the worst case scenario which has happened before. In that case, the concept of modern retirement is probably off the table anyway