Volume III: Greenland & The Inevitable – Why Uranium Rare Earths and Strategic Materials Are About to Break the Market

Alright, I am back with Volume III. If you listened to me in late December, you should now be up around 45% YTD holding long. Here is my next piece as we continue to track global events and the rare earths bananza continues to take hold:

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My portfolio (UUUU, MP, CCJ, LYC, LEU) is not a bet on higher spot prices. It is a bet on physical bottlenecks colliding with geopolitics, energy security, and capital rotation. The market is still underestimating how violent that collision will be.

The desire for Greenland is not reckless, it was inevitable. It is the visible phase of a transition that was locked in years ago….

We are entering a period where governments and utilities will pay whatever they must to secure supply of rare earths and materials. When that happens equity repricing does not happen gradually. It happens all at once. Like a fucking Hurricane.

The Macro Thesis

I. Energy security has replaced cost efficiency.

II. China’s dominance is now politically intolerable.

III. Supply chains cannot be rebuilt on demand.

IV. Demand is inelastic and accelerating.

V. Capital is rotating away from over owned growth and toward physical chokepoints.

Greenland was the accelerant not the cause.

The moment Greenland entered the geopolitical spotlight markets were reminded of a simple truth – just like Venezuela. The West does not control the materials it needs to function. That realization does not lead to negotiation. It leads to stockpiling long term contracts and panic bidding.

Why This Was Set in Stone Years Ago China Won Africa

None of this started in Greenland.

Greenland is the flashpoint not the origin.

The origin was a twenty year strategic campaign where China secured the physical foundation of the global economy while the West assumed markets and interdependence would enable the continuation of their growth and supremacy.

Beginning in the early 2000s China made a deliberate choice. Control the inputs not the brands.

While the West shut down processing, delayed permits, financialized commodities and treated minerals as cyclical trades, China invested directly in mines, built roads, ports and rail while using state backed capital for long term access to resources.

Africa was the centerpiece.

Across the DRC, Zambia, Namibia, Guinea, Zimbabwe and beyond, China locked up cobalt, copper, lithium, rare earths manganese, and graphite, not through spot markets but through multi decade offtake agreements and state to state deals the West refused to touch (because were politically correct pansies playing a game against realists who understood this mineral war years ago).

Once those contracts were signed the game was over. The molecules were spoken for. China now controls the majority of rare earths. We’re fucked and now we’re panicking.

The West’s Mistake and Why It Cannot Be Fixed Quickly

1). The West assumed supply would always be available.

2). That China would remain a neutral trade partner.

3). That ESG frameworks and markets could replace strategy.

By the time policymakers woke up the supply chain had already hardened.

You cannot rebuild mines in two years.

You cannot rebuild processing in three.

You cannot recreate workforce expertise overnight.

You cannot manufacture social license on demand.

China did not win because it was smarter. It won because it was earlier and planned for the long term future.

What we are watching now is not a transition. It is a forced unwind of a twenty year mistake. Emergency funding long term contracts, ensuring strategic stockpiles and national security exemptions are all symptoms of the same realization. Time no longer exists.

Why Greenland Changed Everything

Greenland forced the issue into the open.

It reminded markets and policymakers that strategic minerals are geographically constrained, that supply chains are political, and that China already made its move.

This is not a new arms race. It is the late innings of one that already began. When time disappears price stops mattering.

The Companies and the Bottlenecks They Control (and how to make money from this)

This portfolio (UUUU, MP, CCJ, LYC, & LEU) is not a collection of commodity stocks. It is a collection of chokepoint owners.

Energy Fuels controls one of the only domestic pathways in the United States for converting uranium into usable nuclear fuel and separating rare earth oxides. Mining without processing is irrelevant. Processing is the bottleneck. As supply nationalism accelerates Energy Fuels becomes policy infrastructure not a trade.

Cameco sits at the center of Western uranium supply. Utilities do not want exposure to geopolitics. They want certainty. Cameco controls scalable politically acceptable supply at the exact moment utilities are pulling contracts forward and locking volumes for decades. This is not price leverage. It is contract leverage.

Centrus controls enrichment. Mining is step one. Enrichment is the gate. SMRs require HALEU. HALEU barely exists. Russia dominates enrichment and that is no longer acceptable. Centrus is not leveraged to spot uranium. It is leveraged to national security timelines.

MP Materials controls the only large scale rare earth mine in the United States. No mine means no supply. No supply means no EVs no defense systems no AI hardware. Processing will follow but mining is the choke.

Lynas is the only meaningful rare earth processor outside China. That single fact makes it irreplaceable. In a real supply crisis Lynas does not compete. It gets allocated.

YTD, this portfolio is up 40%. Tomorrow (and for the rest of Q1 and beyond) we should expect another major rally.

Final Thoughts

This is not a meme stock play. This is structural. A Face melting lift off based around our world changing and the minerals needed to ensure it operates. Join the ride!