I'm still baffled that cycles are continuing to play out so well, and somehow it's not priced in, nor derailed by anything. Not just in the 4 year timing, but the same tapering ratios in price still seem to be in play, still following a curve.
If $126K was the peak, then once again, we got a bull cycle peak every 4 years. Right in Q4.
Also we're seeing the consistent tapering down each cycle.
Like a ripple in a pond, or an echo, with each new wave weakening.
2025 peak went 8x
2021 peak went 16x
2017 peak went 90x
2013 peak went 452x
Each new bear market starting in Q4, then having one last big rally and bull trap, before the plunge.
We see how each bull cycle ATH finished.
Then how the crash started.
If $126K is in fact the peak of the cycle, then it looks like $98K was the first quick bounce back after nearly a straight plunge with the first relief and major rally.
If history is any guide, we might see a second rally, with another slightly longer period of higher lows, before we fully plunge in the bear winter.
Is it possible that we're starting another bear cycle right on cue, once again? No "this time it's different". No "it's already priced in". Like clockwork. Here's what things are looking like right now in terms of the cycles:
byu/fan_of_hakiksexydays inCryptoCurrency
Posted by fan_of_hakiksexydays
12 Comments
We went from looking for cycle top to now looking for find the cycle bottom.
That’s good news for bulls though.
i think everything is possible, it’s eerily similar
Yeah, the main problem we’re dealing with is that nobody fucking believes in Crypto anymore. Next cycle is probably just a bitcoin lower high, and hype going to like $130
Added a bit more to my DCA this month, I do like these prices atm.
No. This is the beginning of the crash that will wipe out digital currencies.
I don’t care anymore.
Is Bitcoin a Construct?
Nah just a short, it’s not over.
It’s already started couple of months ago, but many people missed it, only starting to realise now after its 40% down from ATH. Same as last time.
It’s definitely possible, but I don’t think it’s as clean or certain as the charts make it look.
The diminishing returns part makes sens , as BTC gets bigger, each cycle naturally produces smaller multiples. That trend is real. Where it gets tricky is assuming that means the top *has* to be in just because past cycles lined up neatly.
Also, the mood here doesn’t really feel like a classic cycle top. Those usually come with a lot of confidence and excitement. This feels more like people being tired, frustrated, or checked out, which often shows up after an early drawdown rather than at the final peak.
Could this turn into a lower high and a longer bear? Absolutely possible.
Could it also just be a rough mid-cycle shakeout in a tougher macro environment? also possible.
Cycles do tend to rhyme, but they don’t follow a perfect schedule. Most of what we’re all doing here is trying to make sense of limited data in real time — and that rarely looks as clean as it does in hindsight.
cycle? son, the closest thing you ever been through that was even close to a cycle is that little battery powered scooter you zipping around on. now get back on tiktok before u hurt somebody
Yes, 126k was the top right on cue. Now its a downwards cycle for 1 year, then sideways for a year after that. Earliest time to buy back in is end of 2026.