IGV $7.7M Contrarian Call: Gamma Floor at 84, Vanna Target 95-100

Bold contrarian flow came through yesterday: $7.7M call order on IGV (Software ETF), 85C expiring 2/20/26. This is institutional money attempting to bottom-fish Software amid the AI Displacement panic.

The Position:

• Strike: $85

• Expiration: Feb 20, 2026

• Premium: $7.7 million

• Signal: Contrarian bottom call

Greek Analysis:

February OPEX structure shows the downside move hit its technical target at $84. Here's why this matters:

Gamma Support at 84: Dealer hedging dynamics create a natural floor here. IGV is trading near this level, suggesting worst of technical damage may be done.

Delta Pin: Current positioning has IGV pinned at 84-85 (heavy options activity creates gravitational pull). Temporary, but once it breaks, movement tends to be directional.

Vanna Flows: This is the compelling part. Vanna structure suggests high potential for pivot toward $95, with possibility of $100 if selling exhausts. Since Software has elevated IV from panic, if/when IV contracts, Vanna flows support upward movement.

The Thesis:

Institutions are betting the selloff is overdone. Indiscriminate dumping of infrastructure plays (NET) and public safety (AXON) due to coding agent fears is emotion over fundamentals. Greek structure (Gamma at 84, Vanna to 95-100) defines the risk/reward.

Risk: February 20 expiration gives ~2 weeks. If AI Displacement fears escalate or broader market weakness spills into Software, significant mark-to-market risk.

Reward: If panic exhausts and Greeks play out, 95-100 targets offer meaningful upside from structural support.

Watch IGV at 84-85. Hold validates the call. Break and close invalidates it.