TL;DR at the bottom–This is the WSB version; if you are more sophisticated, disregard

Positions:

Current Positions Showing 200 Shares and 1 $185 Call

The plan is simple. This will be the quarter that $NVDA actually surges when the company reports outstanding earnings because it isn’t fully priced in right now. If the stock rallies ahead of the report in anticipation and my calls are green, I will convert the position into as many free spreads as possible while maintaining positive delta. I will not be buying or selling shares.

Why it isn't Priced In:

Analyst consensus for Q1 FY27 Revenue Guidance still anticipates a slowdown in revenue growth. Every source I can find puts guided revenue in the $70- $71B range, while I am expecting closer to $76 billion, signaling continued AI demand strength. 

I wrote a DD far too long for this subreddit that explains why I see such a divergence, but the gist is that analysts have been estimating Q1 FY27 as the beginning of normalized growth for $NVDA for multiple quarters and will have to revise forecasts after the release.

Q1 FY27 Revenue and FY27 Revenue Estimates Show Slowing Growth

While these forecasts have been slightly upgraded following the surprise CapEx from hyperscalers, QoQ growth is expected to drop from ~15% this quarter ($65.58 vs $57.01) to 8% in Q1 ($70.8 vs $65.58). Long-term growth forecasts are set to meaningfully change after $NVDA reports that the demand has not subsided yet. 

How to Actually Make Money From This:

The stock currently trades for $182.81 at the time of writing, near the middle of the established trading range. While I do believe everything I said about revised forecasts serving as a bullish catalyst, it still makes sense to be buying at the bottom of the range ($170-$175) and selling at the top ($190-$195).

No one will be surprised when $NVDA reports great earnings and solid guidance, but the lower half of the range is still pricing in negativity surrounding China, supply constraints, increased competition, and limited ROI on AI spend.

Tomorrow, I plan to buy additional $185 calls. In the remaining 6 trading sessions from then until earnings, I will add onto the position if the stock hits the lower end of the trading range, and will turn my calls into debit spreads if $NVDA is going into earnings at the top of the range.

This way, I go into the print either with cheap calls at a strike the stock can absolutely hit on solid earnings, or I have ITM debit spreads that would earn max gain unless the stock drops to the lower half of the range after earnings. While both scenarios can still produce losses, the upsides outweigh the risks when set up in this way.

Quick Earnings Analysis:

If you only care about the headline figures, this is about where I see the print coming in:

Non-GAAP EPS: $1.56 vs $1.52 est.
Total Revenue: $66.87 billion vs $65.58 billion est.
Q1 FY27 Revenue Guide: $76.00 billion vs. $70.8 billion est.

The following high-level drivers are impacting my estimates:

1. Data Center Revenue growth continues to accelerate YoY on Blackwell demand
2. China revenue is $0 in the current quarter, with a slight boost in Q1 guidance
3. Supply constraints are still the main factor limiting growth
4. Margins stable despite rising component costs
5. Gaming weakness to prioritize Data Center growth

This is my fifth consecutive quarter posting estimates, a summary of historical performance is below:

Historical Performance vs Midpoint Consensus Since Q4 FY25

While these estimates are current, they are not finalized and may change before the earnings release. Thank you for reading, I am a human, and this is not financial advice.

Reddit please don't auto delete it's copy pasted from my docs not from spam!!

TL;DR:

• This is the time $NVDA actually goes up on ER
• Q1 FY27 Guidance will trigger more upgrades than usual
• Earnings will still be good without China
• Buy $NVDA 2/27 $185C, Add Pre-ER if Down, Sell $187.5C or $190C if Up