Crude oil setup going into next week — bearish macro vs bullish geopolitics

Quick breakdown of where CL sits heading into Monday:

WTI ~$66.50. Stuck in a range.

Bear case:
- EIA/IEA both forecasting massive supply surplus in 2026 (2.4M bbl/day increase)
- Brent forecast down to $56-58 avg for the year
- OPEC+ increasing production targets
- Inventories building week after week

Bull case:
- Russia sanctions finally biting — shadow fleet under real pressure for the first time
- Venezuela exports halted since December
- Iran instability
- Short positioning is crowded — squeeze potential on any headline

Key levels I'm watching:
- Support: $64 / $62
- Resistance: $68 / $70

I'm neutral-bearish bias but not married to it. One Russia headline flips this $5 in a session.

EIA petroleum report Wednesday, natgas storage Thursday. Both could move things.

What are you guys seeing? Anyone trading energy this week?