DHT Bull Case – Why the tanker market may be about to explode

People are massively underestimating what’s happening in the tanker market right now.

Three developments over the past few days could create one of the most extreme supply shocks in tanker history, and companies like DHT could be direct beneficiaries.

First, tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has reportedly fallen by ~90%, according to shipping data. The Strait of Hormuz normally handles around 20% of the world’s oil supply, so even partial disruptions have historically sent tanker rates skyrocketing.

Source: https://qazinform.com/news/tanker-traffic-through-strait-of-hormuz-falls-by-90-kpler-7d192b/amp

Second, Iran has reportedly largely halted oil and gas exports through the strait, which effectively freezes one of the largest crude export corridors on the planet.

Source: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/03/iran-has-largely-halted-oil-and-gas-exports-through-strait-of-hormuz

Third, Iran claimed it struck a US oil tanker in the Gulf, which dramatically increases the perceived risk for vessels operating in the region. Even if the physical damage is limited, the psychological effect on shipowners, charterers, and insurers can be enormous.

Source: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-says-it-hits-us-oil-tanker-gulf-no-immediate-confirmation-2026-03-05/

Why does this matter for tanker stocks?

Because tanker supply is extremely inelastic in the short term. You cannot suddenly build more VLCCs, and if ships avoid certain routes due to war risk, the available fleet shrinks overnight.

At the same time, oil still needs to move.

If cargoes cannot move normally through the Gulf, several things happen that are massively bullish for tanker demand:

-Ships avoid the region, reducing available supply

-Insurance costs surge, raising charter rates

-Oil gets rerouted on much longer voyages

-More ships get used as floating storage

All of this increases ton-mile demand, which is the single most important driver of tanker earnings.

This is where DHT comes in.

DHT owns a large fleet of VLCCs the exact ships used to move crude oil on long-haul routes between the Middle East, Asia, Europe, and the US.

Importantly, DHT has significant exposure to the spot market, which means it benefits almost immediately when freight rates spike.

Historically, when VLCC rates explode, tanker equities move violently.

For context:

During previous shipping shocks, VLCC day rates have briefly exceeded $300k–$400k per day. When that happens, tanker companies generate enormous free cash flow very quickly.

If this situation in the Gulf persists even for a few weeks the tanker market could tighten dramatically.

And if ships start avoiding the Strait of Hormuz entirely, we could see one of the most extreme tanker dislocations in decades.

Not financial advice, but the risk/reward setup for tanker names like DHT right now looks very asymmetric.

The market may still be asleep here.