ECMWF just dropped the spring seasonal outlook. Some interesting signals for European power

Been following the ECMWF seasonal outlook on Kpler as part of my power analytics work. The latest temperature and wind updates both came out today and there are some things worth flagging.

On temperature: as of last month the April forecast was basically neutral across most of Europe. The March update shifted that completely. Now almost all of Europe is expecting high temperature anomalies for April, with only Iberia staying neutral. That's a big revision in one month.

The seasonal outlook for April-May-June also revised significantly. The biggest move is in the Nordics and Baltics, going from no clear signal to +1 to +1.5°C above normal. Central and Southeast Europe were already warm in the February forecast and that's been confirmed. Southern France and Iberia are actually trending more neutral for the quarter while the rest of the continent warms.

The wind side is a bit more mixed though. The April wind outlook is mostly neutral across Europe, with the Nordics actually confirming slightly lower than normal wind. The Channel and North Sea are the exception, picking up slightly positive signals for the spring quarter. So for Germany specifically the picture is still favorable, but the Nordics being warmer with less wind is an interesting combo. Warmer means less heating demand but weaker wind means less cheap Nordic power flowing south.

For power markets, the temperature signal is the bigger story right now. Less heating demand pulling gas off the stack is significant given TTF is elevated because of the Hormuz situation. More warmth also tends to mean better solar conditions in central Europe. Combined, that's a meaningful buffer against gas-driven price pressure in the merit order. But the wind picture means it's not a clean sweep for renewables this spring.

Still learning a lot about how seasonal forecasts actually play out vs what the models predict.

Has anyone here been tracking ECMWF seasonal accuracy over multiple years? Would love to know how much weight people actually put on these signals for trading or procurement decisions.