Hormuz was moving about 15.7 million barrels a day of crude and products in Jan-Feb. Since March 1, that has basically collapsed. Kpler's flow data shows only about 19 tankers have made it out of the Persian Gulf since the war started, roughly one a day. Pre-crisis it was 25-30+.
The current supply gap is around 9-12.5 mbd. Saudi is pushing hard through Yanbu (exports up from 1.2 to 2.8 mbd) but loading capacity tops out at 5.5 mbd. UAE is rerouting through Fujairah. But Iraq and Kuwait are basically stranded, with output cratering from a combined 6.8 mbd to around 2.2 mbd.
400 million barrels divided by that gap = roughly 32-45 days of cover. And that is if they release it all at once, which they will not. In 2022 they spread a smaller release over six months.
On top of that, IEA stocks are a mix of crude and refined products, so not all of it is refinery-ready crude.
The Mayuree Naree getting hit inside the Strait this morning reset the clock on when anyone expects normal transits to resume. That is 22 confirmed vessel attacks since this started.
The numbers just do not work unless Hormuz reopens.
I did the math on the IEA’s 400 million barrel release vs. what is actually stuck behind Hormuz. It does not add up.
byu/Bulky_Traffic2229 inoil
Posted by Bulky_Traffic2229
3 Comments
duh?
This would be controversial if oil were still at 65BBL
And the shortfall is not evenly spread between countries. It’s going to be wild in Asia where 50% of their energy comes out of Hormuz. Not to mention fertilizer..