The S&P 500 is already down roughly around 2% year-to-date, and we’re still very early in the year. With the ongoing war between the U.S. and Iran, and the possibility that the conflict drags on longer than expected, it makes me wonder how much this could impact markets over the rest of the year.
One of the biggest concerns is obviously oil. If the conflict continues or escalates, energy prices could stay elevated for longer than expected. Higher oil prices tend to feed into inflation, which could put pressure on consumers and potentially slow economic growth.
I’m also curious how other investors are approaching this situation. Have any of you reallocated part of your portfolio into things like U.S. Treasury bonds or commodities such as Gold as a hedge, or are you just continuing to dollar-cost average into your index funds and viewing the current dip as a cheaper buying opportunity?
With the S&P 500 already down ~2% YTD, do you think 2026 could end up being a negative year for the market?
byu/Groundbreaking-Gap20 ininvesting
Posted by Groundbreaking-Gap20
30 Comments
Yes, it could end up being a negative year. Any year could be.
Well I lump-summed $800k in September so yeah, probably
You know investors are delusional when they’re asking about the possibility of a negative year lol.
Brother, you could see a negative decade.
I have never been more certain that it could be negative for the year.
Or positive.
Even flat, possibly.
This kind of post is absurd. Sure, it could be negative. Or it could be positive. Or it could be flat too. The most important point is this short term move right now indicates NOTHING about how the year will end
It could go up. Or it might go down.
I’m just going to continue sowing the seeds
If you have a long term horizon, a neg market for a single year is just a discount on what you would be buying anyway.
Maybe yes, maybe no
President Trump is a wrench in the gears of trend following strategies. Let the hedge funds suffer and just stick with a low-fee long-term equity-heavy strategy
Could it be? Of course it could. Will it be? I have no clue.
Nope, that’s next year
Yes, as we draw closer to the end of the year if we are still negative you could see tax loss harvesting which will make it worse.
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And don’t worry, next year will be better
I’m half convinced that any correction is a rug pull, so I’m going to keep dollar cost averaging.
It could literally reverse the year’s loss tomorrow.
Or it could collapse. If anyone knew, they wouldn’t be on Reddit telling you.
After Liberation Day, I was shocked that 2025 rebounded so well. So… anything is possible for 2026.
I am not the most positive person ever, but S&P -2% YTD is like nothing. A 10% correction once in a while is OK if it makes a 20% – 30% crash harder to happen.
It is March, literal HELL is breaking out and we are 2% off high and people think we are down 50%. This won’t be a negative year.
Hopefully so I can buy low
If the year is negative that’ll mean I’ve spent a year buying weekly into a nice dip. Except for XLE, thats the only one keeping me green lol.
I love buying stocks at a discount. You need volatility to make money folks…keep DCAing
Yes, very possible
So I mentioned it earlier in a comment but it is kind of interesting to think about. The actual basis of this question is ridiculous but technically the market could go up, go down or stay flat but it has a much smaller possibility of staying flat.
Brother, we are one tweet away from the market going up or down 5 -10%… Who knows 😆
One word: Trump
At this point last year the market was down nearly 10% and a few weeks later was down like 18%. But the market still ended the year up double digits.
Just keep that in mind.
OH NO!!! 2%!!! IT’S ALL BURNING DOWN!!! SELL SELL SELLLLLLL!!!!
I’m short the market right now.