I have been an active participant in the stock market for 6 plus years now. Total trading volume of 1.5-2.5million, per year, as a swing trader. This is total trade amounts – ie, total proceeds – not profit or gains, or portfolio size.
Hoping I'm not alone; currently feeling like I have no fucking clue in where and how to position myself for the coming months. I am 75% in cash.
The Macro environment and overall narrative: Oil Crisis, Private Lending, National Debt, Junk Corporate Bonds selling off, Global geopolitical risks all suggest a looming correction across the markets.
However, most of the higher time frame charts of both indices and individual names are showing constructive bullish divergences.
My best bet at trying to "figure out" what is happening is that there will be a melt-up for the next couple weeks maybe month before either setting or testing ATHs at which point the rest of the risks in the market result in a bear market towards the later half of 2026.
Total selling volume has not been huge thus I'm thinking there are still large players that are trying to generate enough liquidity to exit the market, which will likely cause buying over the next couple of weeks / month or so for their positions to be liquidated.
There is also an increasing amount of Quantitative Easing occurring, and potentially the need to cut interest rates to combat the weaking GDP and Labor market conditions – both would support rising equity prices, at least in the short term.
What is your view on the current path for the next 2-10 months
byu/Alternative-Gate-897 instocks
Posted by Alternative-Gate-897
25 Comments
2 more years of bear market. Only obvious winner is oil stocks
>Trading 1.5-2.5million, per year, as a swing trader.
If this post were real, there is no fucking way you’d unironically be asking reddit how to handle millions in cash in a current market that’s *barely* even a proper bear market lol.
Will Trump go on the elections trail under a bear market? If anything they will purge the market now, lower rates, then ride the wave into end of year November.
Ah yes the classic Reddit multimillionaire who needs advice how to trade in a market where there are tons of good discounts on big names.
No one knows, especially no one commenting on Reddit.
An oil shock can create a bear market. I suspect that’s what’s going to happen. Possibly a recession
OP making 100 trades per year with his $15k balance lmfao
I’m long on seeds, ammunition, and arable land upwind of major population centers and/or military bases.
Red
Invest in technology as usual shit never changes.
Don’t let the noise dispell you
Same as the past 2-10 months. No clue what happened was going to happen therefore no clue what might happen. Anyone telling me they knew we’d hit Iran 10 months ago is full of it.
Thinking one can predict tomorrow how they get in trouble today. Otherwise just tell me the lotto numbers for tonight. Please 😉
I’m heavy cash as well. Doesnt hurt to get more clarity. If you’re trading, you should block out the noise and just trade the charts.
April PPI will show the effects from oil shock. I believe we see an increase in inflation, while Trump pushes for lower interest rates. Sustained inflation is my guess, unless Warsh does what Trump wants, then we see 1970s stagflation and stocks trade sideways for 5-10 years.
If the world goes to shit, investing won’t matter. If a person doesn’t need the money today, just keep investing.
VT and chill
Trying not to eat a 9mm for breakfast
Markets down maybe up.
Democracy to zero.
I don’t understand putting the total sum of trades, just say whatever you have in your account. Over the last 10 weeks I’ve traded 1.7billion in notional volume lol
Maybe down. Maybe up. Maybe sideways.
I have very same conversations with my friends who trade and if you have strong convictions that we are heading into a bear market, you have to make yourself be comfortable with missing out on some small gains in the next couple months.
Personally I’m using the spacex ipo as a top signal. I’ll never sell my core holdings, but I’ve already raised cash, am hedged on the oil side with futures and will buy puts a day or two after spacex ipos.
Hope it loses money lol
The plan is same as before
– buy good dips
– hold for 1-3 years
– sell ATH
Whisky
the problem with the melt-up thesis is it assumes large players need weeks to exit. they dont. institutional desking has gotten way faster since 2020 and dark pool volume on SPY has been running above 45% of total, which means the big exits can happen without moving the tape much at all until its too late.
im sitting on about 60% cash rn (~$180k) and what keeps bugging me is the high yield spread. its been widening steadily since january and last time that happend while equties were still grinding up was late 2018. that took about 6 weeks before SPY followed it down.